Belgian Pro League, round 8 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Achter De Kazerne
KV Mechelen — St.Truiden
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4:3Missed
In short
Final score 4:3: the model's most likely outcome, St.Truiden to win (42%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 42% fails in about 58 matches out of 100 on average.
St.Truiden are slightly stronger: 42% against 30%, draw 28%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings St.Truiden are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- KV Mechelen: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: KV Mechelen 0 wins, St.Truiden 4, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: KV Mechelen — St.Truiden What is xG? | 1.3–1.6 | |
| KV Mechelen not to lose | 58% | |
| St.Truiden not to lose | 70% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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Form
- 19.09away · Lommel0:0
- 11.09Anderlecht0:1
- 05.09Westerlo0:4
- 29.08away · RAAL La Louvière2:2
- 22.08away · Sporting Charleroi0:2
- 20.09Westerlo0:2
- 12.09away · SK Beveren0:2
- 05.09RAAL La Louvière4:0
- 02.09Union St.Gilloise0:3
- 30.08away · Royal Antwerp4:1
Head to head
- 24.05.2026St.Truiden — KV Mechelen3:0
- 26.04.2026KV Mechelen — St.Truiden1:4
- 21.12.2025St.Truiden — KV Mechelen1:0
- 04.10.2025KV Mechelen — St.Truiden1:3
- 21.02.2025KV Mechelen — St.Truiden1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | SK Beveren | 8 | 3 | -6 | 9 |
| 12 | St.Truiden | 8 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Royal Antwerp | 8 | 2 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | KV Mechelen | 8 | 1 | -8 | 6 |
| 15 | OH Leuven | 8 | 1 | -8 | 5 |
Next matches
- St.TruidenIberia 199915 October · Conference League5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:12.9
- KV MechelenEupen18 October · Belgian Cup6122171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
Belgian Pro League on the same day
- 342937XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X0:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 0:0.2.7
- 781561The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
- 4727271The most likely outcome came true: 15:1Final score 5:1. Model's score: 2:1.3.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →