Segunda Division, round 8 · Sunday, 4 October, MSK · Estadio de Gran Canaria
Las Palmas — Real Valladolid
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In short
Final score 2:2: the model's most likely outcome, Las Palmas to win (39%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 39% fails in about 61 matches out of 100 on average.
Las Palmas are slightly stronger: 39% against 30%, draw 31%.
The model expects few goals: 1.9 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 31%, both teams to score — 38%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Las Palmas 4 wins, Real Valladolid 0, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Las Palmas — Real Valladolid What is xG? | 1.1–0.9 | |
| Las Palmas not to lose | 70% | |
| Real Valladolid not to lose | 61% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 38% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 62% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 31% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 69% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Las Palmas
- Las Palmas goals
- Real Valladolid goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 27.09away · Eibar2:3
- 20.09Burgos CF1:2
- 12.09away · Cádiz1:0
- 04.09Leganés0:0
- 29.08away · Girona2:5
- 27.09Córdoba3:1
- 20.09away · AD Ceuta FC1:1
- 13.09Real Oviedo0:3
- 05.09FC Andorra1:0
- 30.08away · Cádiz1:1
Head to head
- 03.05.2026Las Palmas — Real Valladolid2:1
- 14.11.2025Real Valladolid — Las Palmas0:1
- 28.02.2025Real Valladolid — Las Palmas1:1
- 07.12.2024Las Palmas — Real Valladolid2:1
- 19.03.2022Real Valladolid — Las Palmas0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Granada | 9 | 4 | +1 | 14 |
| 11 | Real Valladolid | 9 | 3 | +2 | 12 |
| 12 | Tenerife | 9 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 14 | Eldense | 9 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 15 | Las Palmas | 9 | 3 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Leganés | 9 | 3 | -8 | 11 |
Next matches
- MallorcaLas Palmas11 October · Segunda Division4530241The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.0
- Real ValladolidAlbacete12 October · Segunda Division5127221The most likely outcome came true: 15:0Final score 5:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.5
Segunda Division on the same day
- 4029311The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
- 4826261The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
- 7515101The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 3:1.3.7
- 5424221The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.6
- 4430261The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →