UEFA Europa League, round 2 · Thursday, 15 October, MSK · Enea Stadion
Lech Poznań — Bayer Leverkusen
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 15 October
In short
Bayer Leverkusen are clear favourites: 50% against 25% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Lech Poznań are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Lech Poznań — No. 35, 0 pts; Bayer Leverkusen — No. 7, 3 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Bayer Leverkusen: 3 wins in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lech Poznań — Bayer Leverkusen What is xG? | 1.2–1.7 | |
| Lech Poznań not to lose | 50% | |
| Bayer Leverkusen not to lose | 75% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Lech Poznań
- Lech Poznań goals
- Bayer Leverkusen goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Śląsk Wrocław4:1
- 20.09Radomiak Radom5:1
- 17.09away · Crystal Palace0:4
- 12.09away · Górnik Zabrze1:2
- 06.09Raków Częstochowa1:0
- 10.10away · Mainz 054:3
- 20.09RB Leipzig2:0
- 16.09NK Celje2:0
- 12.09away · Augsburg2:2
- 05.09Union Berlin4:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6, Straight to the round of 16 | Ferencváros | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 7, Straight to the round of 16 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 8, Straight to the round of 16 | Benfica | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 34 | Viktoria Plzeň | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 |
| 35 | Lech Poznań | 1 | 0 | -4 | 0 |
| 36 | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | -5 | 0 |
Europa League on the same day
- 4226321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- 7217101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
- 4526291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- 2525502The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:32.9
- 6221161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- 5225241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- 1420662The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.1
- 6819131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →