EFL Championship, round 13 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK
Lincoln City — Birmingham City
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 31 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Lincoln City 32%, Birmingham City 38%, draw 30%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Lincoln City — No. 17, 11 pts; Birmingham City — No. 4, 17 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
- Birmingham City: unbeaten in 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lincoln City — Birmingham City What is xG? | 1.2–1.3 | |
| Lincoln City not to lose | 62% | |
| Birmingham City not to lose | 68% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Lincoln City
- Lincoln City goals
- Birmingham City goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Sheffield United0:3
- 19.09Swansea City1:2
- 15.09away · Bristol City1:0
- 12.09away · Preston North End1:0
- 08.09away · AFC Bournemouth0:4
- 13.10Preston North End4:0
- 10.10away · West Bromwich Albion1:0
- 19.09Middlesbrough2:2
- 12.09away · Derby County2:1
- 09.09away · Norwich City1:2
Head to head
- 11.01.2025Birmingham City — Lincoln City2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Promotion play-offs | Southampton | 9 | 5 | +10 | 17 |
| 4, Promotion play-offs | Birmingham City | 10 | 4 | +6 | 17 |
| 5, Promotion play-offs | West Bromwich Albion | 10 | 5 | +2 | 17 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 10 | 2 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Lincoln City | 9 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 18 | Cardiff City | 10 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
Championship on the same day
- Norwich CityWatfordpreliminary6423131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- Stoke CityPreston North Endpreliminary4629251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- Bolton WanderersBristol Citypreliminary3228402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
- BurnleyPortsmouthpreliminary4928231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- MiddlesbroughCharlton Athleticpreliminary731891The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- MillwallDerby Countypreliminary5426201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- SouthamptonQueens Park Rangerspreliminary5325211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- Swansea CityBlackburn Roverspreliminary5726161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →