UEFA Champions League, round 3 · Tuesday, 20 October, MSK
Manchester City — AEK Athens
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 20 October
In short
Manchester City are clear favourites: 82% against 6% for the opponent, draw 12%.
3.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 70%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Manchester City are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Manchester City — No. 10, 3 pts; AEK Athens — No. 17, 3 pts.
- Manchester City: 5 wins in a row; AEK Athens: unbeaten in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Manchester City — AEK Athens What is xG? | 2.9–0.7 | |
| Manchester City not to lose | 94% | |
| AEK Athens not to lose | 18% | |
| No draw | 88% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 70% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 30% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Manchester City
- Manchester City goals
- AEK Athens goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · Liverpool3:0
- 20.09Sunderland5:3
- 17.09Norwich City5:0
- 13.09away · Manchester United1:0
- 08.09away · FC Porto2:0
- 10.10OFI Crete3:0
- 20.09away · NFC Volos2:1
- 13.09away · Asteras Tripolis1:1
- 08.09LASK1:0
- 05.09Aris Thessaloniki5:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 10, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 11, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Villarreal | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 16, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 17, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | AEK Athens | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 18, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Club Brugge | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Champions League on the same day
- 7118111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
- 815772The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:43.4
- 4426301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- 6321161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.0
- 89831The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:04.0
- 5324231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:02.9
- 5424221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- 4226311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 82% will not happen in roughly 18 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →