EFL Championship, round 13 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK
Norwich City — Watford
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 31 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Norwich City are clear favourites: 64% against 13% for the opponent, draw 23%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Norwich City are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Norwich City — No. 19, 9 pts; Watford — No. 22, 8 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Norwich City: 4 defeats in a row; Watford: 4 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Norwich City 3 wins, Watford 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Norwich City — Watford What is xG? | 2.0–1.0 | |
| Norwich City not to lose | 87% | |
| Watford not to lose | 36% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Norwich City
- Norwich City goals
- Watford goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Swansea City1:2
- 20.09Bolton Wanderers3:4
- 17.09away · Manchester City0:5
- 12.09away · Middlesbrough3:4
- 09.09Birmingham City2:1
- 13.10away · Cardiff City1:5
- 10.10Burnley0:4
- 18.09away · Bristol City0:1
- 12.09Stoke City1:2
- 08.09Preston North End2:1
Head to head
- 29.12.2025Norwich City — Watford0:1
- 06.12.2025Watford — Norwich City3:2
- 12.08.2025Watford — Norwich City1:2
- 01.02.2025Watford — Norwich City0:1
- 21.09.2024Norwich City — Watford4:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Cardiff City | 10 | 2 | +1 | 10 |
| 19 | Norwich City | 9 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 20 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | -4 | 8 |
| 22, Relegation | Watford | 10 | 2 | -11 | 8 |
| 23, Relegation | Derby County | 9 | 1 | -7 | 6 |
Championship on the same day
- Lincoln CityBirmingham Citypreliminary3230382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.5
- Stoke CityPreston North Endpreliminary4629251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- Bolton WanderersBristol Citypreliminary3228402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
- BurnleyPortsmouthpreliminary4928231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- MiddlesbroughCharlton Athleticpreliminary731891The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- MillwallDerby Countypreliminary5426201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- SouthamptonQueens Park Rangerspreliminary5325211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- Swansea CityBlackburn Roverspreliminary5726161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 64% will not happen in roughly 36 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →