Major League Soccer (MLS), round 28 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Inter.co Stadium
Orlando City — Columbus Crew
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3:2Came true
In short
Final score 3:2: the model's most likely outcome, Orlando City to win (37%), came true.
Evenly matched: Orlando City 37%, Columbus Crew 35%, draw 28%.
3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 66%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Orlando City — Columbus Crew What is xG? | 1.6–1.6 | |
| Orlando City not to lose | 65% | |
| Columbus Crew not to lose | 63% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 66% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 34% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 61% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 39% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Orlando City
- Orlando City goals
- Columbus Crew goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 27.09away · Philadelphia Union2:4
- 20.09away · New England Revolution2:4
- 17.09away · Columbus Crew1:2
- 13.09Toronto FC3:0
- 10.09away · Atlanta United3:2
- 28.09Inter Miami CF2:1
- 20.09away · CF Montréal2:0
- 17.09Orlando City2:1
- 13.09Red Bull New York0:1
- 10.09away · DC United1:2
Head to head
- 17.09.2026Columbus Crew — Orlando City2:1
- 13.04.2026Columbus Crew — Orlando City1:1
- 05.10.2025Orlando City — Columbus Crew1:1
- 26.07.2025Columbus Crew — Orlando City1:3
- 22.09.2024Columbus Crew — Orlando City4:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14, Wild-card game, 8th v 9th, for a playoff place | Colorado Rapids | 28 | 11 | 0 | 37 |
| 15, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Orlando City | 28 | 11 | -15 | 37 |
| 16, Wild-card game, 8th v 9th, for a playoff place | FC Cincinnati | 27 | 9 | -7 | 36 |
| 26 | DC United | 27 | 6 | -12 | 30 |
| 27 | Columbus Crew | 28 | 8 | -5 | 29 |
| 28 | Atlanta United | 28 | 7 | -15 | 27 |
Next matches
- Toronto FCOrlando City15 October · MLS3827351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
- Columbus CrewCharlotte FC15 October · MLS4925261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
MLS on the same day
- 4326301The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:3Final score 1:3. Model's score: 2:1.3.4
- 4428281The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.8
- 5723201The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 1:0.3.7
- 4028311The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:0.3.0
- 3827351The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:0.3.5
- 6620141The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.5
- 2327502The most likely outcome came true: 21:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 1:2.2.7
- 3227402The most likely outcome did not happen: 23:3Final score 3:3. Model's score: 1:2.3.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →