Brazilian Serie B, round 32 · Wednesday, 7 October, MSK · Estádio Ítalo Mário Limongi
Ponte Preta — Juventude
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0:2Came true
In short
Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Juventude to win (61%), came true.
Juventude are clear favourites: 61% against 15% for the opponent, draw 24%.
2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 37%, both teams to score — 39%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Juventude are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
- Ponte Preta: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Facts
- Last 3 meetings: Ponte Preta 0 wins, Juventude 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ponte Preta — Juventude What is xG? | 0.7–1.5 | |
| Ponte Preta not to lose | 39% | |
| Juventude not to lose | 85% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 39% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 61% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 37% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 63% |
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Form
- 03.10away · Cuiabá0:2
- 30.09away · Botafogo SP0:2
- 20.09CRB1:0
- 16.09away · Londrina0:6
- 11.09away · Sport Recife0:2
- 03.10Operário-PR3:0
- 29.09away · América-MG1:0
- 19.09away · Sport Recife1:2
- 14.09Athletic Club MG0:2
- 09.09away · Criciúma2:0
Head to head
- 14.06.2026Juventude — Ponte Preta3:0
- 18.11.2023Juventude — Ponte Preta0:0
- 19.07.2023Ponte Preta — Juventude0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Promotion | Novorizontino | 33 | 17 | +31 | 60 |
| 3, Promotion play-offs | Juventude | 33 | 17 | +18 | 60 |
| 4, Promotion play-offs | Fortaleza | 33 | 15 | +10 | 57 |
| 19, Relegation | América-MG | 33 | 4 | -33 | 17 |
| 20, Relegation | Ponte Preta | 33 | 3 | -55 | 13 |
Next matches
- JuventudeSão Bernardo11 October · Brasileirao Serie B5726171The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.0
- NovorizontinoPonte Preta13 October · Brasileirao Serie B89831The most likely outcome came true: 15:1Final score 5:1. Model's score: 4:0.3.2
Brasileirao Serie B on the same day
- 5724181The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.4
- 4827251The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.2.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →