Brazilian Serie B, round 32 · Wednesday, 7 October, MSK · Estádio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho
Sport Recife — São Bernardo
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2:1Came true
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Sport Recife to win (57%), came true.
Sport Recife are clear favourites: 57% against 18% for the opponent, draw 24%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 46%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Sport Recife are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sport Recife — São Bernardo What is xG? | 1.6–0.8 | |
| Sport Recife not to lose | 82% | |
| São Bernardo not to lose | 43% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 46% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 54% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 44% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 56% |
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Form
- 02.10away · Athletic Club MG2:1
- 26.09away · Náutico1:3
- 19.09Juventude2:1
- 16.09away · CRB1:2
- 11.09Ponte Preta2:0
- 03.10CRB3:1
- 26.09away · Novorizontino0:0
- 19.09Atlético-GO1:0
- 15.09away · América-MG2:0
- 11.09Londrina1:2
Head to head
- 14.06.2026São Bernardo — Sport Recife0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | CRB | 33 | 15 | +4 | 52 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 33 | 13 | +10 | 51 |
| 9 | Operário-PR | 33 | 13 | -1 | 48 |
| 11 | Cuiabá | 33 | 11 | +6 | 47 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 33 | 12 | +10 | 46 |
| 13 | Athletic Club MG | 32 | 10 | +1 | 42 |
Next matches
- JuventudeSão Bernardo11 October · Brasileirao Serie B5726171The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.0
- Atlético-GOSport Recife11 October · Brasileirao Serie B4827251The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
Brasileirao Serie B on the same day
- 4827251The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.2.5
- 1524612The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →