Brazilian Serie B, round 32 · Wednesday, 7 October, MSK · Estádio de Hailé Pinheiro
Goiás — Athletic Club MG
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2:1Came true
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Goiás to win (48%), came true.
Goiás are clear favourites: 48% against 25% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Goiás are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Last 3 meetings: Goiás 0 wins, Athletic Club MG 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Goiás — Athletic Club MG What is xG? | 1.5–1.0 | |
| Goiás not to lose | 75% | |
| Athletic Club MG not to lose | 52% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 44% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 56% |
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- Handicap Goiás
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- Athletic Club MG goals
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Form
- 02.10away · Novorizontino0:3
- 27.09Atlético-GO0:1
- 20.09Avaí2:1
- 15.09away · Botafogo SP3:1
- 11.09away · Vila Nova0:2
- 02.10Sport Recife1:2
- 28.09away · Fortaleza2:2
- 20.09Botafogo SP1:1
- 14.09away · Juventude2:0
- 09.09away · Cuiabá0:3
Head to head
- 14.06.2026Athletic Club MG — Goiás1:1
- 11.10.2025Athletic Club MG — Goiás1:1
- 24.06.2025Goiás — Athletic Club MG1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Operário-PR | 33 | 13 | -1 | 48 |
| 10 | Goiás | 33 | 14 | -6 | 48 |
| 11 | Cuiabá | 33 | 11 | +6 | 47 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 33 | 12 | +10 | 46 |
| 13 | Athletic Club MG | 33 | 10 | +1 | 43 |
| 14 | Náutico | 33 | 11 | -3 | 42 |
Next matches
- Operário-PRGoiás12 October · Brasileirao Serie B4329281The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.4
- Athletic Club MGLondrina14 October · Brasileirao Serie B4827241The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.6
Brasileirao Serie B on the same day
- 5724181The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.4
- 1524612The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →