Major League Soccer (MLS), round 28 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Sports Illustrated Stadium
Red Bull New York — San Diego FC
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4:1Came true
In short
Final score 4:1: the model's most likely outcome, Red Bull New York to win (38%), came true.
Evenly matched: Red Bull New York 38%, San Diego FC 35%, draw 27%.
3.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 68%, both teams to score — 71%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- San Diego FC: winless in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Red Bull New York — San Diego FC What is xG? | 1.8–1.7 | |
| Red Bull New York not to lose | 65% | |
| San Diego FC not to lose | 62% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 29% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 68% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 32% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Red Bull New York
- Red Bull New York goals
- San Diego FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 01.10St. Louis City0:3
- 19.09away · New York City FC1:0
- 13.09away · Columbus Crew1:0
- 10.09away · Los Angeles FC0:2
- 06.09away · Seattle Sounders FC0:0
- 27.09away · Austin FC3:3
- 21.09away · Inter Miami CF2:2
- 14.09Philadelphia Union0:5
- 10.09San Jose Earthquakes2:3
- 06.09away · Orlando City0:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17, Wild-card game, 8th v 9th, for a playoff place | LA Galaxy | 29 | 9 | -11 | 36 |
| 18, Wild-card game, 8th v 9th, for a playoff place | Red Bull New York | 28 | 10 | -14 | 36 |
| 19 | New York City FC | 28 | 8 | +4 | 33 |
| 20 | Portland Timbers | 28 | 9 | -3 | 33 |
| 21 | San Diego FC | 28 | 8 | -3 | 32 |
| 22 | Real Salt Lake | 28 | 9 | -5 | 32 |
Next matches
- DC UnitedRed Bull New York15 October · MLS4427291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.3
- San Diego FCHouston Dynamo FC15 October · MLS4427291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
MLS on the same day
- 4326301The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:3Final score 1:3. Model's score: 2:1.3.4
- 4428281The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.8
- 5723201The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 1:0.3.7
- 4028311The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:0.3.0
- 3728351The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:1.3.2
- 6620141The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.5
- 2327502The most likely outcome came true: 21:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 1:2.2.7
- 3227402The most likely outcome did not happen: 23:3Final score 3:3. Model's score: 1:2.3.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →