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UEFA Nations League, round 4, League B, group 4 · Monday, 5 October, MSK · Arena Naţională

Romania — Sweden

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Model prediction and result

0:1Came true
Romania23%
Draw24%
Sweden53%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, Sweden to win (53%), came true.

Sweden are clear favourites: 53% against 23% for the opponent, draw 24%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.

Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 62%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Romania 1569, Sweden 1759 — Sweden clearly rated higher.
  • Romania: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Romania — Sweden What is xG?1.3–1.9
Romania not to lose47%
Sweden not to lose77%
No draw76%
Both teams to score: yes62%
Both teams to score: no38%
Total over 2.561%
Total under 2.539%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Handicap Romania
  • Romania goals
  • Sweden goals
  • Corners and cards
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Form

Romania

  • 02.10away · Poland0:6
  • 28.09Bosnia and Herzegovina2:4
  • 25.09away · Sweden1:2
  • 06.06Wales2:1
  • 02.06away · Georgia1:1

Sweden

  • 02.10away · Bosnia and Herzegovina1:1
  • 28.09Poland3:1
  • 25.09Romania2:1
  • 01.07away · France0:3
  • 26.06away · Japan1:1

Head to head

  • 25.09.2026Sweden — Romania2:1
  • 15.11.2019Romania — Sweden0:2
  • 23.03.2019Sweden — Romania2:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveSweden43107–3+410
2, Promotion play-offsBosnia and Herzegovina42206–3+38
3Poland41127–4+34
4, Relegation play-offRomania40043–13-100

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • CyprusLatvia
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.2.5
  • FranceBelgium
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:0.3.0
  • ItalyTurkiye
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:0.3.1
  • Northern IrelandGeorgia
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.2
  • UkraineHungary
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.3
  • Bosnia and HerzegovinaPoland
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 1:0. Model's score: 0:2.2.5
  • MontenegroArmenia
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:0. Model's score: 3:1.3.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →