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UEFA Nations League, round 4, League B, group 4 · Monday, 5 October, MSK · Stadion Bilino Polje

Bosnia and Herzegovina — Poland

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Model prediction and result

1:0Missed
Bosnia and Herzegovina25%
Draw27%
Poland48%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Poland to win (48%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 48% fails in about 52 matches out of 100 on average.

Poland are clear favourites: 48% against 25% for the opponent, draw 27%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 49%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Bosnia and Herzegovina 1655, Poland 1702 — Poland rated higher.
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Bosnia and Herzegovina — Poland What is xG?1.0–1.5
Bosnia and Herzegovina not to lose52%
Poland not to lose75%
No draw73%
Both teams to score: yes49%
Both teams to score: no51%
Total over 2.545%
Total under 2.555%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • Bosnia and Herzegovina goals
  • Poland goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Bosnia and Herzegovina

  • 02.10Sweden1:1
  • 28.09away · Romania4:2
  • 25.09away · Poland0:0
  • 02.07away · USA0:2
  • 24.06Qatar3:1

Poland

  • 02.10Romania6:0
  • 28.09away · Sweden1:3
  • 25.09Bosnia and Herzegovina0:0
  • 03.06Nigeria2:2
  • 31.05Ukraine0:2

Head to head

  • 25.09.2026Poland — Bosnia and Herzegovina0:0
  • 14.10.2020Poland — Bosnia and Herzegovina3:0
  • 07.09.2020Bosnia and Herzegovina — Poland1:2

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveSweden43107–3+410
2, Promotion play-offsBosnia and Herzegovina42206–3+38
3Poland41127–4+34
4, Relegation play-offRomania40043–13-100

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • CyprusLatvia
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.2.5
  • FranceBelgium
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:0.3.0
  • ItalyTurkiye
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:0.3.1
  • Northern IrelandGeorgia
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.2
  • UkraineHungary
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.3
  • RomaniaSweden
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.3.2
  • MontenegroArmenia
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:0. Model's score: 3:1.3.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →