PremiumTelegram
EN
Sections

UEFA Nations League, round 2, League B, group 1 · Tuesday, 29 September, MSK · Barclays Hampden

Scotland — Switzerland

☆ Save match

Model prediction and result

0:3Came true
Scotland19%
Draw25%
Switzerland56%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:3: the model's most likely outcome, Switzerland to win (56%), came true.

Switzerland are clear favourites: 56% against 19% for the opponent, draw 25%.

2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 53%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Scotland 1747, Switzerland 1942 — Switzerland clearly rated higher.
  • Scotland: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Scotland — Switzerland What is xG?1.0–1.8
Scotland not to lose44%
Switzerland not to lose81%
No draw75%
Both teams to score: yes53%
Both teams to score: no47%
Total over 2.553%
Total under 2.547%

91 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Scotland
  • Scotland goals
  • Switzerland goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Form

Scotland

  • 26.09away · Slovenia0:0
  • 25.06Brazil0:3
  • 20.06Morocco0:1
  • 14.06away · Haiti1:0
  • 06.06away · Bolivia4:0

Switzerland

  • 26.09away · North Macedonia3:0
  • 12.07away · Argentina1:3
  • 07.07Colombia0:0
  • 03.07Algeria2:0
  • 24.06Canada2:1

Head to head

  • 19.06.2024Scotland — Switzerland1:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveSwitzerland440011–1+1012
2, Promotion play-offsSlovenia42115–3+27
3Scotland41123–5-24
4, Relegation play-offNorth Macedonia40040–10-100

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

  • North MacedoniaScotland3 October · UEFA Nations League
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.7
  • SwitzerlandSlovenia3 October · UEFA Nations League
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.6

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • FinlandBelarus
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
  • MoldovaFaroe Islands
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:1.2.4
  • CzechiaEngland
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.3.0
  • SpainCroatia
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.1
  • SloveniaNorth Macedonia
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
  • San MarinoAlbania
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:3. Model's score: 0:3, exactly right.3.3
  • SlovakiaKazakhstan
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.7
  • BulgariaEstonia
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →