UEFA Nations League, round 3, League B, group 1 · Saturday, 3 October, MSK · Nacionalna Arena Toše Proeski
North Macedonia — Scotland
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
0:2Came true
In short
Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Scotland to win (52%), came true.
Scotland are clear favourites: 52% against 21% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- National-team Elo: North Macedonia 1561, Scotland 1721 — Scotland clearly rated higher.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: North Macedonia — Scotland What is xG? | 1.0–1.7 | |
| North Macedonia not to lose | 48% | |
| Scotland not to lose | 79% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
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- Handicap North Macedonia
- North Macedonia goals
- Scotland goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 29.09away · Slovenia0:2
- 26.09Switzerland0:3
- 01.06away · Turkiye0:4
- 29.05away · Bosnia and Herzegovina0:0
- 31.03away · Ireland0:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion to the league above | Switzerland | 4 | 4 | +10 | 12 |
| 2, Promotion play-offs | Slovenia | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 3 | Scotland | 4 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 4, Relegation play-off | North Macedonia | 4 | 0 | -10 | 0 |
Next matches
- SwitzerlandNorth Macedonia6 October · UEFA Nations League841241The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 3:1.3.3
- ScotlandSlovenia6 October · UEFA Nations League4530251The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.2
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 3432341The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.2
- 2325522The most likely outcome came true: 20:7Final score 0:7. Model's score: 1:2.2.9
- 871121The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 2:0.3.1
- 3231372The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 0:1.2.3
- 6223151The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.9
- 88931The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:0.3.6
- 6623121The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →