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UEFA Nations League, round 3, League B, group 1 · Saturday, 3 October, MSK · thermoplan arena

Switzerland — Slovenia

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Model prediction and result

2:1Came true
Switzerland66%
Draw23%
Slovenia12%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Switzerland to win (66%), came true.

Switzerland are clear favourites: 66% against 12% for the opponent, draw 23%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 44%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Switzerland 1968, Slovenia 1694 — Switzerland clearly rated higher.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Switzerland — Slovenia What is xG?1.9–0.7
Switzerland not to lose88%
Slovenia not to lose34%
No draw77%
Both teams to score: yes44%
Both teams to score: no56%
Total over 2.549%
Total under 2.551%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Switzerland
  • Switzerland goals
  • Slovenia goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Switzerland

  • 29.09away · Scotland3:0
  • 26.09away · North Macedonia3:0
  • 12.07away · Argentina1:3
  • 07.07Colombia0:0
  • 03.07Algeria2:0

Slovenia

  • 29.09North Macedonia2:0
  • 26.09Scotland0:0
  • 07.06away · Croatia1:2
  • 04.06Cyprus1:1
  • 31.03away · Montenegro3:2

Head to head

  • 13.10.2025Slovenia — Switzerland0:0
  • 08.09.2025Switzerland — Slovenia3:0

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveSwitzerland440011–1+1012
2, Promotion play-offsSlovenia42115–3+27
3Scotland41123–5-24
4, Relegation play-offNorth Macedonia40040–10-100

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

  • SwitzerlandNorth Macedonia6 October · UEFA Nations League
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:0. Model's score: 3:1.3.3
  • ScotlandSlovenia6 October · UEFA Nations League
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.2

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • FinlandAlbania
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.2
  • CroatiaEngland
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:7. Model's score: 1:2.2.9
  • BelarusSan Marino
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 4:0. Model's score: 2:0.3.1
  • EstoniaLuxembourg
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 1:0. Model's score: 0:1.2.3
  • IcelandBulgaria
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.9
  • SpainCzechia
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:0.3.6
  • North MacedoniaScotland
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 66% will not happen in roughly 34 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →