UEFA Nations League, round 2, League B, group 1 · Tuesday, 29 September, MSK · Stadion Stožice
Slovenia — North Macedonia
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2:0Came true
In short
Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Slovenia to win (54%), came true.
Slovenia are clear favourites: 54% against 18% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 39%, both teams to score — 42%.
Why
- National-team Elo: Slovenia 1680, North Macedonia 1575 — Slovenia rated higher.
- Slovenia: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Facts
- North Macedonia: winless in 5.
- Last 3 meetings: Slovenia 0 wins, North Macedonia 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Slovenia — North Macedonia What is xG? | 1.5–0.8 | |
| Slovenia not to lose | 82% | |
| North Macedonia not to lose | 46% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 42% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 58% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 39% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 61% |
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Form
- 26.09Scotland0:0
- 07.06away · Croatia1:2
- 04.06Cyprus1:1
- 31.03away · Montenegro3:2
- 28.03away · Hungary0:1
- 26.09Switzerland0:3
- 01.06away · Turkiye0:4
- 29.05away · Bosnia and Herzegovina0:0
- 31.03away · Ireland0:0
- 26.03away · Denmark0:4
Head to head
- 01.06.2021North Macedonia — Slovenia1:1
- 10.10.2019North Macedonia — Slovenia2:1
- 24.03.2019Slovenia — North Macedonia1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion to the league above | Switzerland | 4 | 4 | +10 | 12 |
| 2, Promotion play-offs | Slovenia | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
| 3 | Scotland | 4 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 4, Relegation play-off | North Macedonia | 4 | 0 | -10 | 0 |
Next matches
- SwitzerlandSlovenia3 October · UEFA Nations League6623121The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.6
- North MacedoniaScotland3 October · UEFA Nations League2127522The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.7
UEFA Nations League on the same day
- 5725191The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
- 2830422The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:1.2.4
- 919722The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.3.0
- 771671The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.1
- 1925562The most likely outcome came true: 20:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
- 17932The most likely outcome came true: 20:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 0:3, exactly right.3.3
- 7021101The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.7
- 4629251The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →