Major League Soccer (MLS), round 28 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Sporting Park
Sporting Kansas City — Portland Timbers
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In short
Final score 3:3: the model's most likely outcome, Portland Timbers to win (40%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 40% fails in about 60 matches out of 100 on average.
Portland Timbers are slightly stronger: 40% against 32%, draw 27%.
3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 67%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Portland Timbers are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Portland Timbers: 3 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Sporting Kansas City 0 wins, Portland Timbers 4, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sporting Kansas City — Portland Timbers What is xG? | 1.5–1.7 | |
| Sporting Kansas City not to lose | 60% | |
| Portland Timbers not to lose | 68% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 67% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 33% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 62% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 38% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Sporting Kansas City
- Sporting Kansas City goals
- Portland Timbers goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 02.10away · Seattle Sounders FC1:2
- 27.09away · Houston Dynamo FC2:0
- 20.09Philadelphia Union3:4
- 13.09Los Angeles FC3:1
- 06.09away · FC Dallas3:4
- 27.09away · San Jose Earthquakes1:3
- 20.09Atlanta United0:1
- 13.09away · FC Dallas1:2
- 10.09St. Louis City2:2
- 06.09Minnesota United5:4
Head to head
- 10.05.2026Portland Timbers — Sporting Kansas City6:0
- 11.05.2025Portland Timbers — Sporting Kansas City1:0
- 13.04.2025Sporting Kansas City — Portland Timbers2:4
- 26.05.2024Portland Timbers — Sporting Kansas City2:1
- 07.04.2024Sporting Kansas City — Portland Timbers3:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | New York City FC | 28 | 8 | +4 | 33 |
| 20 | Portland Timbers | 28 | 9 | -3 | 33 |
| 21 | San Diego FC | 28 | 8 | -3 | 32 |
| 29 | CF Montréal | 28 | 6 | -21 | 24 |
| 30 | Sporting Kansas City | 28 | 6 | -33 | 22 |
Next matches
- Nashville SCSporting Kansas City15 October · MLS761681The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.4
- LA GalaxyPortland Timbers15 October · MLS4227311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
MLS on the same day
- 4326301The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:3Final score 1:3. Model's score: 2:1.3.4
- 4428281The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.8
- 5723201The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 1:0.3.7
- 4028311The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:3Final score 0:3. Model's score: 1:0.3.0
- 3827351The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:0.3.5
- 3728351The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:1.3.2
- 6620141The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.5
- 2327502The most likely outcome came true: 21:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 1:2.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →