Major League Soccer (MLS), round 29 · Thursday, 15 October, MSK · Energizer Park
St. Louis City — Vancouver Whitecaps
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 15 October
In short
Evenly matched: St. Louis City 34%, Vancouver Whitecaps 38%, draw 28%.
3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 69%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Vancouver Whitecaps are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
- St. Louis City: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Facts
- League table: St. Louis City — No. 3, 50 pts; Vancouver Whitecaps — No. 2, 51 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- St. Louis City: 5 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: St. Louis City 1 win, Vancouver Whitecaps 3, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: St. Louis City — Vancouver Whitecaps What is xG? | 1.6–1.7 | |
| St. Louis City not to lose | 62% | |
| Vancouver Whitecaps not to lose | 66% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 31% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 64% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 36% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap St. Louis City
- St. Louis City goals
- Vancouver Whitecaps goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 12.10LA Galaxy6:2
- 01.10away · Red Bull New York3:0
- 20.09Toronto FC3:1
- 17.09away · Colorado Rapids3:0
- 13.09Minnesota United4:2
- 11.10away · Los Angeles FC1:1
- 07.10away · Chicago Fire FC1:3
- 27.09DC United3:3
- 20.09away · Real Salt Lake3:0
- 14.09Austin FC1:2
Head to head
- 06.09.2026Vancouver Whitecaps — St. Louis City1:3
- 24.08.2025Vancouver Whitecaps — St. Louis City3:2
- 20.04.2025St. Louis City — Vancouver Whitecaps0:0
- 14.07.2024St. Louis City — Vancouver Whitecaps1:4
- 30.06.2024Vancouver Whitecaps — St. Louis City4:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Nashville SC | 28 | 19 | +37 | 63 |
| 2, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Vancouver Whitecaps | 28 | 15 | +31 | 51 |
| 3, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | St. Louis City | 28 | 14 | +16 | 50 |
| 4, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Inter Miami CF | 28 | 13 | +18 | 49 |
MLS on the same day
- 4326311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.5
- 4925261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- 4327301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.3
- 5524211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.5
- 4427281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- 3827351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
- 3728351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.3
- 3929321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →