EFL Championship, round 13 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK
Stoke City — Preston North End
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 31 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Stoke City are clear favourites: 46% against 25% for the opponent, draw 29%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Stoke City — No. 7, 16 pts; Preston North End — No. 24, 4 pts. A gap of 12 pts.
- Preston North End: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Stoke City 1 win, Preston North End 1, 3 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Stoke City — Preston North End What is xG? | 1.5–1.2 | |
| Stoke City not to lose | 75% | |
| Preston North End not to lose | 54% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Stoke City
- Stoke City goals
- Preston North End goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 13.10Middlesbrough2:3
- 10.10away · Bolton Wanderers2:1
- 19.09Sheffield United2:1
- 12.09away · Watford2:1
- 08.09away · Cardiff City1:1
- 13.10away · Birmingham City0:4
- 10.10Millwall0:1
- 19.09away · Queens Park Rangers2:2
- 12.09Lincoln City0:1
- 08.09away · Watford1:2
Head to head
- 20.03.2026Preston North End — Stoke City3:1
- 26.12.2025Stoke City — Preston North End0:0
- 05.04.2025Preston North End — Stoke City1:1
- 26.11.2024Stoke City — Preston North End0:0
- 09.03.2024Preston North End — Stoke City1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6, Promotion play-offs | West Ham United | 9 | 4 | +11 | 16 |
| 7, Promotion play-offs | Stoke City | 10 | 5 | +1 | 16 |
| 8, Promotion play-offs | Blackburn Rovers | 10 | 4 | +2 | 15 |
| 23, Relegation | Derby County | 9 | 1 | -7 | 6 |
| 24, Relegation | Preston North End | 10 | 1 | -12 | 4 |
Championship on the same day
- Lincoln CityBirmingham Citypreliminary3230382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.5
- Norwich CityWatfordpreliminary6423131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- Bolton WanderersBristol Citypreliminary3228402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
- BurnleyPortsmouthpreliminary4928231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- MiddlesbroughCharlton Athleticpreliminary731891The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- MillwallDerby Countypreliminary5426201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7
- SouthamptonQueens Park Rangerspreliminary5325211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- Swansea CityBlackburn Roverspreliminary5726161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →