Argentine Liga Profesional · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Estadio José Dellagiovanna
Tigre — Banfield
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In short
Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Tigre to win (57%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 57% fails in about 43 matches out of 100 on average.
Tigre are clear favourites: 57% against 17% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 45%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Tigre are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Tigre: 4 defeats in a row; Banfield: unbeaten in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Tigre 3 wins, Banfield 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Tigre — Banfield What is xG? | 1.6–0.8 | |
| Tigre not to lose | 83% | |
| Banfield not to lose | 43% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 45% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 55% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 43% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 57% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Tigre
- Tigre goals
- Banfield goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 05.10away · Argentinos Juniors1:2
- 21.09away · Vélez Sarsfield2:3
- 13.09Rosario Central0:1
- 05.09away · Gimnasia LP1:2
- 01.09Barracas Central0:0
- 06.10Rosario Central1:1
- 19.09away · Gimnasia LP2:2
- 15.09Barracas Central1:1
- 10.09away · Deportivo Riestra1:1
- 05.09away · Aldosivi1:3
Head to head
- 21.03.2026Banfield — Tigre1:0
- 30.08.2025Banfield — Tigre1:0
- 27.06.2025Tigre — Banfield2:0
- 25.02.2025Tigre — Banfield1:0
- 18.11.2024Banfield — Tigre0:1
Next matches
- BanfieldArgentinos Juniors17 October · Liga Profesional2530452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.2
- Independiente RivadaviaTigre17 October · Liga Profesional4331261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.1
Liga Profesional on the same day
- 771661The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.5
- 413326XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X1:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 0:0.1.6
- 343135XThe most likely outcome came true: X1:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:1, exactly right.1.9
- 4828241The most likely outcome came true: 15:0Final score 5:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →