Argentine Liga Profesional · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Estadio Pedro Bidegaín
San Lorenzo — Deportivo Riestra
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
1:0Missed
In short
Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (33%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 33% fails in about 67 matches out of 100 on average.
San Lorenzo are slightly stronger: 41% against 26%, draw 33%.
The model expects few goals: 1.6 in total, against a competition average of 2.1.
Over 2.5 goals — 21%, both teams to score — 30%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- Deportivo Riestra: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: San Lorenzo 1 win, Deportivo Riestra 1, 3 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: San Lorenzo — Deportivo Riestra What is xG? | 0.9–0.7 | |
| San Lorenzo not to lose | 74% | |
| Deportivo Riestra not to lose | 59% | |
| No draw | 67% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 30% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 70% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 21% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 79% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap San Lorenzo
- San Lorenzo goals
- Deportivo Riestra goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 03.10away · Defensa y Justicia0:3
- 20.09Boca Juniors0:2
- 14.09away · Independiente1:1
- 06.09Talleres1:0
- 01.09away · Instituto0:1
- 05.10Central Córdoba de Santiago1:1
- 19.09away · Gimnasia Mendoza0:0
- 15.09Lanús0:3
- 10.09Banfield1:1
- 05.09away · Club Atlético Platense1:1
Head to head
- 18.07.2026San Lorenzo — Deportivo Riestra1:1
- 26.03.2026Deportivo Riestra — San Lorenzo1:1
- 01.11.2025San Lorenzo — Deportivo Riestra1:0
- 20.04.2025Deportivo Riestra — San Lorenzo0:0
- 12.05.2024Deportivo Riestra — San Lorenzo1:0
Next matches
- EstudiantesSan Lorenzo19 October · Liga Profesional5727161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.1
- Deportivo RiestraUnión20 October · Liga Profesional393228XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:11.8
Liga Profesional on the same day
- 5726171The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.4
- 771661The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.5
- 343135XThe most likely outcome came true: X1:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:1, exactly right.1.9
- 4828241The most likely outcome came true: 15:0Final score 5:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →