J1 League (Japan), round 10 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Tokyo Verdy — FC Tokyo
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
FC Tokyo are clear favourites: 50% against 22% for the opponent, draw 28%.
The model expects few goals: 2.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 37%, both teams to score — 42%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Tokyo are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Tokyo Verdy — No. 20, 4 pts; FC Tokyo — No. 4, 20 pts. A gap of 16 pts.
- Tokyo Verdy: winless in 5; FC Tokyo: 4 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Tokyo Verdy 0 wins, FC Tokyo 2, 3 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Tokyo Verdy — FC Tokyo What is xG? | 0.8–1.4 | |
| Tokyo Verdy not to lose | 50% | |
| FC Tokyo not to lose | 78% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 42% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 58% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 37% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 63% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Tokyo Verdy
- Tokyo Verdy goals
- FC Tokyo goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Sanfrecce Hiroshima0:2
- 19.09away · Urawa Red Diamonds1:3
- 13.09JEF United Chiba1:1
- 06.09away · Cerezo Osaka0:0
- 02.09Vissel Kobe0:2
- 10.10Urawa Red Diamonds3:0
- 19.09Nagoya Grampus1:0
- 12.09away · Gamba Osaka2:0
- 06.09Kyoto Sanga FC2:0
- 02.09away · Shimizu S-Pulse1:1
Head to head
- 10.05.2026FC Tokyo — Tokyo Verdy2:1
- 22.03.2026Tokyo Verdy — FC Tokyo0:0
- 15.09.2025FC Tokyo — Tokyo Verdy1:0
- 02.04.2025Tokyo Verdy — FC Tokyo2:2
- 17.08.2024FC Tokyo — Tokyo Verdy0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Machida Zelvia | 9 | 6 | +12 | 20 |
| 4 | FC Tokyo | 9 | 6 | +9 | 20 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 9 | 6 | +5 | 19 |
| 19, Relegation | JEF United Chiba | 9 | 1 | -11 | 5 |
| 20, Relegation | Tokyo Verdy | 9 | 0 | -10 | 4 |
J1 League on the same day
- 3729341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- 2927442The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.7
- 7218101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- 4027331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
- 5825171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- 2928422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.5
- 5026231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →