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UEFA Nations League, round 4, League B, group 2 · Monday, 5 October, MSK · CITY ARENA – Štadión Antona Malatinského

Ukraine — Hungary

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Model prediction and result

1:2Came true
Ukraine30%
Draw30%
Hungary40%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Hungary to win (40%), came true.

Hungary are slightly stronger: 40% against 30%, draw 30%.

2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 48%.

Why

  • National-team Elo: Ukraine 1747, Hungary 1702 — Ukraine rated higher.
  • Ukraine: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Ukraine — Hungary What is xG?1.1–1.3
Ukraine not to lose60%
Hungary not to lose70%
No draw70%
Both teams to score: yes48%
Both teams to score: no52%
Total over 2.541%
Total under 2.559%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Ukraine
  • Ukraine goals
  • Hungary goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Ukraine

  • 02.10Northern Ireland0:3
  • 28.09away · Georgia0:0
  • 25.09away · Hungary1:0
  • 31.05away · Poland2:0
  • 31.03Albania1:0

Hungary

  • 02.10Georgia1:0
  • 28.09away · Northern Ireland0:0
  • 25.09Ukraine0:1
  • 09.06Kazakhstan3:1
  • 05.06Finland2:1

Head to head

  • 25.09.2026Hungary — Ukraine0:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Promotion to the league aboveNorthern Ireland42204–0+48
2, Promotion play-offsHungary42113–2+17
3Ukraine41122–5-34
4, Relegation play-offGeorgia40220–2-22

Season 2026/27

Full table

UEFA Nations League on the same day

  • CyprusLatvia
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.2.5
  • FranceBelgium
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:0.3.0
  • ItalyTurkiye
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:0.3.1
  • Northern IrelandGeorgia
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.2
  • Bosnia and HerzegovinaPoland
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 1:0. Model's score: 0:2.2.5
  • RomaniaSweden
    2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:2.3.2
  • MontenegroArmenia
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:0. Model's score: 3:1.3.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →