Bundesliga, round 5 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Stadion An der Alten Försterei
Union Berlin — Elversberg
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
In short
Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Elversberg to win (41%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 41% fails in about 59 matches out of 100 on average.
Elversberg are slightly stronger: 41% against 32%, draw 27%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 64%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Union Berlin — Elversberg What is xG? | 1.5–1.6 | |
| Union Berlin not to lose | 59% | |
| Elversberg not to lose | 68% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 64% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 36% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 59% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 41% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Union Berlin
- Union Berlin goals
- Elversberg goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 18.09away · Bayern München0:7
- 11.09Schalke 041:3
- 05.09away · Bayer Leverkusen0:4
- 29.08Eintracht Frankfurt3:3
- 23.08away · Eintracht Braunschweig4:2
- 20.09away · Schalke 040:0
- 13.09Bayern München1:2
- 05.09away · Borussia Mönchengladbach4:3
- 29.08Bayer Leverkusen3:2
- 22.08away · MSV Duisburg3:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Paderborn | 5 | 1 | -4 | 4 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | -12 | 4 |
| 17, Relegation | Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | -4 | 3 |
Next matches
- Union BerlinBorussia Dortmund17 October · Bundesliga1823592The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
- ElversbergAugsburg17 October · Bundesliga4328291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
Bundesliga on the same day
- 615802The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 1:2.3.9
- 6222151The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 2:0.3.4
- 2828442The most likely outcome came true: 23:4Final score 3:4. Model's score: 0:1.3.3
- 1626572The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:1.2.8
- 5525201The most likely outcome came true: 16:0Final score 6:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →