NHL · Friday, 2 October, MSK · Madison Square Garden
New York Rangers — Tampa Bay Lightning
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5:1Missed
In short
Final score 5:1: the model's most likely outcome, Tampa Bay Lightning to win (57% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 57% fails in about 43 matches out of 100 on average.
Tampa Bay Lightning are favourites: 57% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 56%.
Why
- Tampa Bay Lightning are more dangerous in attack: 3.1 expected goals against 2.7.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: New York Rangers 3 wins, Tampa Bay Lightning 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: New York Rangers — Tampa Bay Lightning | 2.7–3.1 | |
| New York Rangers to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 43% | |
| Tampa Bay Lightning to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 57% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 56% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 44% |
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- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap New York Rangers
- New York Rangers goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 30.09away · Boston Bruins0:3
- 16.04away · Tampa Bay Lightning4:2
- 14.04away · Florida Panthers2:3
- 12.04away · Dallas Stars0:2
- 09.04Buffalo Sabres3:5
- 04.05Montreal Canadiens1:2
- 02.05away · Montreal Canadiens1:0 OT
- 30.04Montreal Canadiens2:3
- 27.04away · Montreal Canadiens3:2
- 25.04away · Montreal Canadiens2:3 OT
Head to head
- 16.04.2026Tampa Bay Lightning — New York Rangers2:4
- 29.11.2025New York Rangers — Tampa Bay Lightning1:4
- 13.11.2025Tampa Bay Lightning — New York Rangers3:7
- 18.04.2025New York Rangers — Tampa Bay Lightning4:0
- 08.04.2025New York Rangers — Tampa Bay Lightning1:5
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Carolina Hurricanes | 8 | 6 | +12 | 13 |
| 2, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | New York Rangers | 8 | 6 | +13 | 12 |
| 3, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Vegas Golden Knights | 8 | 6 | +10 | 12 |
| 12, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Anaheim Ducks | 6 | 4 | +3 | 8 |
| 13, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Tampa Bay Lightning | 6 | 4 | +1 | 8 |
| 14, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Florida Panthers | 7 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
Next matches
- Detroit Red WingsNew York Rangers3 October · NHL58421The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%0:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 5:2.5.8
- Tampa Bay LightningWashington Capitals4 October · NHL65351The most likely outcome came true: 121%3:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 5:2.6.1
NHL on the same day
- 47532The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%6:3Final score 6:3. Model's score: 2:5.6.2
- 62381The most likely outcome came true: 122%3:2OTFinal score 3:2 in overtime. Model's score: 4:1.5.5
- 44562The most likely outcome came true: 222%1:3Final score 1:3. Model's score: 1:4.5.8
- 52481The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%1:6Final score 1:6. Model's score: 4:1.5.3
- 69311The most likely outcome came true: 120%6:0Final score 6:0. Model's score: 4:1.5.8
- 37632The most likely outcome did not happen: 221%4:3OTFinal score 4:3 in overtime. Model's score: 2:5.6.2
- 40602The most likely outcome came true: 221%7:9Final score 7:9. Model's score: 2:5.6.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →