Kazakhstan Hockey Championship · Friday, 30 October, MSK
Pavlodar — Aktobe
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 30 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Aktobe are clear favourites: 88% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects plenty of goals: 7.1 in total, against a competition average of 6.1.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 75%.
Why
- Aktobe are more dangerous in attack: 4.9 expected goals against 2.1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Pavlodar — Aktobe | 2.1–4.9 | |
| Pavlodar to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 12% | |
| Aktobe to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 88% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 75% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 25% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Pavlodar
- Pavlodar goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 12.10away · Torpedo0:8
- 11.10away · Torpedo0:13
- 08.10Aktobe0:6
- 07.10Aktobe2:5
- 02.10away · Karaganda0:9
- 13.10Beibarys Atyrau2:1
- 12.10Beibarys Atyrau2:1
- 08.10away · Pavlodar6:0
- 07.10away · Pavlodar5:2
- 03.10away · Gornyak Rudny1:7
Head to head
- 08.10.2026Pavlodar — Aktobe0:6
- 07.10.2026Pavlodar — Aktobe2:5
- 16.01.2026Aktobe — Pavlodar9:4
- 15.01.2026Aktobe — Pavlodar4:1
- 19.12.2025Pavlodar — Aktobe0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7, Playoffs | Almaty | 18 | 9 | -8 | 18 |
| 8, Playoffs | Aktobe | 18 | 4 | -38 | 9 |
| 9 | Beibarys Atyrau | 18 | 3 | -21 | 8 |
| 10 | Pavlodar | 18 | 0 | -121 | 1 |
Kazakhstan Championship on the same day
- TorpedoNomad Astanapreliminary64361The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.5
- Gornyak RudnyKokshetaupreliminary48522The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.4
- KaragandaAlmatypreliminary84161The model's most likely outcome: 115%Model's score: 4:15.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 80% will not happen in roughly 20 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →