NHL · Sunday, 4 October, MSK · PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins — Montreal Canadiens
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
6:5 OTCame true
In short
Final score 6:5 OT: the model's most likely outcome, Pittsburgh Penguins to win (53% incl. overtime), came true.
Pittsburgh Penguins are favourites: 53% to win including overtime and shootout.
6.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 63%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 3.2 and 3.0.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Pittsburgh Penguins 3 wins, Montreal Canadiens 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Pittsburgh Penguins — Montreal Canadiens | 3.2–3.0 | |
| Pittsburgh Penguins to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 53% | |
| Montreal Canadiens to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 47% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 63% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 37% |
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- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Pittsburgh Penguins
- Pittsburgh Penguins goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 01.10away · Philadelphia Flyers7:0
- 30.04away · Philadelphia Flyers0:1 OT
- 28.04Philadelphia Flyers3:2
- 26.04away · Philadelphia Flyers4:2
- 23.04away · Philadelphia Flyers2:5
- 30.09away · Toronto Maple Leafs3:2
- 30.05away · Carolina Hurricanes1:6
- 28.05Carolina Hurricanes0:4
- 26.05Carolina Hurricanes2:3 OT
- 24.05away · Carolina Hurricanes2:3 OT
Head to head
- 22.12.2025Pittsburgh Penguins — Montreal Canadiens4:3 SO
- 21.12.2025Montreal Canadiens — Pittsburgh Penguins4:0
- 12.12.2025Pittsburgh Penguins — Montreal Canadiens2:4
- 13.12.2024Montreal Canadiens — Pittsburgh Penguins2:9
- 03.11.2024Pittsburgh Penguins — Montreal Canadiens3:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Florida Panthers | 7 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 15, Playoffs: top 3 in each division | Pittsburgh Penguins | 7 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 16 | St. Louis Blues | 6 | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 17, Playoffs: wild cards, 2 per conference | Toronto Maple Leafs | 7 | 3 | +1 | 7 |
| 18 | Montreal Canadiens | 6 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 19 | Buffalo Sabres | 7 | 3 | -7 | 7 |
Next matches
- Pittsburgh PenguinsWinnipeg Jets6 October · NHL66341The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%2:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 5:2.6.0
- Montreal CanadiensCarolina Hurricanes7 October · NHL43572The most likely outcome came true: 223%4:6Final score 4:6. Model's score: 1:4.5.5
NHL on the same day
- 73271The most likely outcome came true: 119%4:3Final score 4:3. Model's score: 5:2.6.1
- 49512The most likely outcome came true: 222%1:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 2:3.5.9
- 60401The most likely outcome came true: 121%3:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 5:2.6.3
- 48522The most likely outcome came true: 223%2:3OTFinal score 2:3 in overtime. Model's score: 2:3.5.6
- 65351The most likely outcome came true: 121%3:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 5:2.6.1
- 44562The most likely outcome came true: 222%2:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 2:5.6.0
- 54461The most likely outcome came true: 123%6:0Final score 6:0. Model's score: 3:2.5.3
- 65351The most likely outcome came true: 121%4:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 5:2.5.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →