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Kazakhstan Hockey Championship · Thursday, 29 October, MSK

Torpedo — Nomad Astana

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Model prediction for 29 October

Torpedo52%
Draw in regulation21%
Nomad Astana27%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Torpedo are clear favourites: 64% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 5.5 in total, against a competition average of 6.1.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 52%.

Why

  • Torpedo are more dangerous in attack: 3.1 expected goals against 2.3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Torpedo — Nomad Astana3.1–2.4
Torpedo to win (incl. OT and shootout)64%
Nomad Astana to win (incl. OT and shootout)36%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)52%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)48%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Torpedo
  • Torpedo goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Torpedo

  • 12.10Pavlodar8:0
  • 11.10Pavlodar13:0
  • 07.10Nomad Astana2:3 SO
  • 06.10Nomad Astana2:3 OT
  • 02.10away · Beibarys Atyrau9:2

Nomad Astana

  • 11.10away · Kokshetau4:2
  • 10.10away · Kokshetau2:3 OT
  • 07.10away · Torpedo3:2 SO
  • 06.10away · Torpedo3:2 OT
  • 02.10Kulager5:4 SO

Head to head

  • 07.10.2026Torpedo — Nomad Astana2:3 SO
  • 06.10.2026Torpedo — Nomad Astana2:3 OT
  • 11.02.2026Nomad Astana — Torpedo3:7
  • 10.02.2026Nomad Astana — Torpedo3:2
  • 19.12.2025Nomad Astana — Torpedo1:5

Full record: 17 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, PlayoffsNomad Astana18162083–36+4734
2, PlayoffsTorpedo18132388–36+5228
3, PlayoffsKokshetau18131464–43+2127

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Kazakhstan Championship on the same day

  • Gornyak RudnyKokshetaupreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.4
  • KaragandaAlmatypreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 115%Model's score: 4:15.8
  • KulagerBeibarys Atyraupreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 3:15.2
  • PavlodarAktobepreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 211%Model's score: 2:57.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →