Swiss National League (hockey): 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 292 matches to play · updated 13 October 2026
The model played the remaining 292 matches 10,000 times. Zurich have the best chance to win the regular season: 49%, Zug 19%.
Race for first place
| Date | Zurich | Zug | Fribourg | Lugano | Davos | Bern |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 September | 26% | 26% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 6% |
| 28 September | 50% | 12% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 7% |
| 5 October | 50% | 16% | 7% | 2% | 7% | 2% |
| 12 October | 49% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 2% |
| 13 October | 49% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 3% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest. Upper zones include the ones above: “Incl. play-in” counts “Straight to QF” too.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | 1st | Straight to QF | Incl. play-in | Play-out |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zurich | 27 (10) | 110 | 13 | 49%▼1 | 95%▲1 | >99%▲1 | <1% |
| 2 | Zug | 13 (7) | 96 | 14 | 19%▲3 | 80%▲6 | 96%▲2 | 1%▼1 |
| 3 | Fribourg | 18 (11) | 92 | 12 | 10%▲3 | 74%▲10 | 95%▲3 | 1%▼1 |
| 4 | Servette | 21 (11) | 88 | 10 | 6%▲1 | 64%▲6 | 92%▲3 | 2%▼1 |
| 5 | Langnau Tigers | 19 (11) | 86 | 9 | 5% | 61%▲4 | 90%▲2 | 2%▼1 |
| 6 | Lugano | 15 (10) | 82 | 8 | 4%▲2 | 52%▲19 | 86%▲18 | 4%▼9 |
| 7 | Bern | 14 (9) | 79 | 7 | 3%▲1 | 42%▲5 | 80%▲6 | 7%▼2 |
| 8 | Davos | 13 (11) | 78 | 5 | 2%▼5 | 40%▼24 | 81%▼11 | 6%▲4 |
| 9 | Lausanne | 15 (11) | 76 | 11 | 1%▼1 | 35%▼4 | 76%▼1 | 8%▼1 |
| 10 | Ambri-Piotta | 15 (10) | 67 | 4 | <1%▼1 | 17%▼3 | 55%▼2 | 20%▲1 |
| 11 | Biel | 10 (10) | 67 | 6 | —▼1 | 19%▼10 | 55%▼8 | 22%▲6 |
| 12 | Ajoie | 16 (11) | 62 | 1 | <1% | 10%▼4 | 41%▼5 | 30%▲4 |
| 13 | Rapperswil-Jona | 11 (11) | 57 | 2 | <1% | 7%▼8 | 30%▼18 | 42%▲15 |
| 14 | EHC Kloten | 9 (11) | 52 | 3 | <1% | 3%▲1 | 20%▲8 | 55%▼14 |
Chance of every place
Show the 14 × 14 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zurich | 49 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Zug | 19 | 19 | 15 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fribourg | 10 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Servette | 6 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Langnau Tigers | 5 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Lugano | 4 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Bern | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| Davos | 2 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Lausanne | 1 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 |
| Ambri-Piotta | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 | |
| Biel | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 10 | |
| Ajoie | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 13 | ||
| Rapperswil-Jona | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 19 | 23 | ||
| EHC Kloten | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 21 | 34 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.
National League: matches and table →
National League: power rankings →