Bundesliga, round 9 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
1. FC Köln — Bayer Leverkusen
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 8 November
In short
Bayer Leverkusen are clear favourites: 51% against 23% for the opponent, draw 25%.
3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 67%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Bayer Leverkusen are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
- Bayer Leverkusen are 95 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: 1. FC Köln — No. 13, 9 pts; Bayer Leverkusen — No. 6, 13 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: 1. FC Köln 0 wins, Bayer Leverkusen 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: 1. FC Köln — Bayer Leverkusen What is xG? | 1.4–1.9 | |
| 1. FC Köln not to lose | 49% | |
| Bayer Leverkusen not to lose | 77% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 67% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 33% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 65% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 35% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap 1. FC Köln
- 1. FC Köln goals
- Bayer Leverkusen goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | 1. FC Köln | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| xG per match | 1.70 | 2.47 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.39 | 1.49 |
| Shots | 15.3 | 20.6 |
| On target | 5.1 | 7.5 |
| Corners | 5.6 | 7.9 |
| Cards | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Possession, % | 54 | 58 |
Form
- 01.11away · Union Berlin1:1
- 27.10Union Berlin5:0
- 24.10Schalke 040:0
- 16.10away · Eintracht Frankfurt0:1
- 11.10Borussia Mönchengladbach2:1
- 31.10VfB Stuttgart2:4
- 28.101. FC Nürnberg5:2
- 25.10away · Hoffenheim0:3
- 22.10away · OFI Crete2:0
- 18.10Freiburg2:1
Head to head
- 25.04.20261. FC Köln — Bayer Leverkusen1:2
- 13.12.2025Bayer Leverkusen — 1. FC Köln2:0
- 05.02.2025Bayer Leverkusen — 1. FC Köln3:2
- 03.03.20241. FC Köln — Bayer Leverkusen0:2
- 08.10.2023Bayer Leverkusen — 1. FC Köln3:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | Werder Bremen | 8 | 4 | +3 | 15 |
| 6, Europa League or Conference League | Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4 | +2 | 13 |
| 7 | Elversberg | 8 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Hoffenheim | 8 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | 1. FC Köln | 8 | 2 | -3 | 9 |
| 14 | Paderborn | 8 | 2 | -3 | 9 |
Bundesliga on the same day
- 6323131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- 5625181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →