Bundesliga, round 9 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Hoffenheim — Schalke 04
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In short
Hoffenheim are clear favourites: 56% against 18% for the opponent, draw 25%.
3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 62%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Hoffenheim are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
- Hoffenheim are 190 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Hoffenheim — No. 12, 9 pts; Schalke 04 — No. 17, 6 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Schalke 04: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Hoffenheim 4 wins, Schalke 04 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Hoffenheim — Schalke 04 What is xG? | 2.0–1.1 | |
| Hoffenheim not to lose | 82% | |
| Schalke 04 not to lose | 44% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 38% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 64% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 36% |
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- All totals
- Handicap Hoffenheim
- Hoffenheim goals
- Schalke 04 goals
- Corners and cards
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Hoffenheim | Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| xG per match | 1.73 | 1.24 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.26 | 1.70 |
| Shots | 17.8 | 11.0 |
| On target | 5.0 | 3.9 |
| Corners | 6.8 | 3.9 |
| Cards | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| Possession, % | 55 | 44 |
Form
- 31.10away · Werder Bremen0:2
- 28.10away · Holstein Kiel1:1
- 25.10Bayer Leverkusen3:0
- 22.10Lyon3:0
- 18.10away · Borussia Mönchengladbach2:1
- 31.10RB Leipzig0:2
- 28.10away · Dynamo Dresden0:2
- 24.10away · 1. FC Köln0:0
- 17.10Mainz 050:1
- 11.10away · Freiburg1:2
Head to head
- 09.04.2023Hoffenheim — Schalke 042:0
- 18.10.2022Hoffenheim — Schalke 045:1
- 14.10.2022Schalke 04 — Hoffenheim0:3
- 08.05.2021Hoffenheim — Schalke 044:2
- 09.01.2021Schalke 04 — Hoffenheim4:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Hoffenheim | 8 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | 1. FC Köln | 8 | 2 | -3 | 9 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Union Berlin | 8 | 1 | -12 | 7 |
| 17, Relegation | Schalke 04 | 8 | 1 | -5 | 6 |
| 18, Relegation | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8 | 1 | -11 | 4 |
Bundesliga on the same day
- 2325512The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.3
- 6323131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →