Bundesliga, round 9 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Freiburg — Union Berlin
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 8 November
In short
Freiburg are clear favourites: 63% against 13% for the opponent, draw 23%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 60%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Freiburg are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
- Freiburg are 210 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Freiburg — No. 3, 16 pts; Union Berlin — No. 16, 7 pts. A gap of 9 pts.
- Union Berlin: winless in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Freiburg 0 wins, Union Berlin 3, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Freiburg — Union Berlin What is xG? | 2.0–1.0 | |
| Freiburg not to lose | 87% | |
| Union Berlin not to lose | 37% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 62% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 38% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Freiburg
- Freiburg goals
- Union Berlin goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Freiburg | Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 | 2.6 |
| xG per match | 1.56 | 1.22 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.30 | 1.91 |
| Shots | 15.6 | 12.2 |
| On target | 4.6 | 4.4 |
| Corners | 5.5 | 4.0 |
| Cards | 1.9 | 2.9 |
| Possession, % | 53 | 42 |
Form
- 31.10away · Augsburg2:1
- 28.10Wolfsburg3:2
- 25.10Bayern München1:3
- 22.10away · Monaco0:3
- 18.10away · Bayer Leverkusen1:2
- 01.111. FC Köln1:1
- 27.10away · 1. FC Köln0:5
- 24.10away · Augsburg1:1
- 17.10Borussia Dortmund0:0
- 10.10Elversberg1:0
Head to head
- 15.03.2026Freiburg — Union Berlin0:1
- 01.11.2025Union Berlin — Freiburg0:0
- 30.03.2025Freiburg — Union Berlin1:2
- 08.11.2024Union Berlin — Freiburg0:0
- 18.05.2024Union Berlin — Freiburg2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5 | +8 | 18 |
| 3, Champions League | Freiburg | 8 | 5 | +8 | 16 |
| 4, Champions League | RB Leipzig | 8 | 5 | +11 | 15 |
| 15 | Hamburger SV | 8 | 3 | -12 | 9 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Union Berlin | 8 | 1 | -12 | 7 |
| 17, Relegation | Schalke 04 | 8 | 1 | -5 | 6 |
Bundesliga on the same day
- 2325512The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.3
- 5625181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →