Uzbekistan Super League, round 28 · Friday, 20 November, (UTC+3)
AGMK — Qizilqum Zarafshon
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 20 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
AGMK are clear favourites: 48% against 22% for the opponent, draw 29%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings AGMK are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
- AGMK are 154 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: AGMK — No. 4, 45 pts; Qizilqum Zarafshon — No. 8, 35 pts. A gap of 10 pts.
- AGMK: 3 wins in a row; Qizilqum Zarafshon: unbeaten in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: AGMK — Qizilqum Zarafshon What is xG? | 1.5–1.0 | |
| AGMK not to lose | 78% | |
| Qizilqum Zarafshon not to lose | 52% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
91 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap AGMK
- AGMK goals
- Qizilqum Zarafshon goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Team news
Form
- 01.11away · Lokomotiv Tashkent2:1
- 25.10Kokand 19122:1
- 15.10away · Mashal Muborak1:0
- 11.10Navbahor Namangan2:2
- 20.09away · Sogdiana2:1
- 30.10away · Kokand 19120:0
- 25.10Lokomotiv Tashkent1:1
- 15.10away · Andijon1:0
- 10.10Surkhon-20110:0
- 21.09away · Xorazm3:1
Head to head
- 18.03.2026Qizilqum Zarafshon — AGMK0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Navbahor Namangan | 26 | 15 | +20 | 52 |
| 4 | AGMK | 26 | 13 | +5 | 45 |
| 5 | Nasaf Qarshi | 26 | 11 | +14 | 42 |
| 7 | Lokomotiv Tashkent | 26 | 11 | +8 | 40 |
| 8 | Qizilqum Zarafshon | 26 | 10 | -6 | 35 |
| 9 | Dinamo Samarkand | 26 | 9 | 0 | 34 |
Uzbekistan Super League on the same day
- Lokomotiv TashkentPakhtakor Tashkentpreliminary3129402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9
- Navbahor NamanganNeftchi Fargonapreliminary3028422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →