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Liga de Expansion MX, playoff · Friday, 6 November, (UTC+3) · Estadio Francisco Zarco

Alacranes de Durango — Leones Negros

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Model prediction for 6 November

Alacranes de Durango46%
Draw29%
Leones Negros25%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

In short

Alacranes de Durango are clear favourites: 46% against 25% for the opponent, draw 29%.

The model expects few goals: 2.5 in total, against a competition average of 2.9.

Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 53%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Facts

  • League table: Alacranes de Durango — No. 7, 24 pts; Leones Negros — No. 2, 30 pts. A gap of 6 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Alacranes de Durango — Leones Negros What is xG?1.5–1.0
Alacranes de Durango not to lose75%
Leones Negros not to lose54%
No draw71%
Both teams to score: yes53%
Both teams to score: no47%
Total over 2.547%
Total under 2.553%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Alacranes de Durango
  • Alacranes de Durango goals
  • Leones Negros goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatAlacranes de DurangoLeones Negros
Goals scored per match0.82.4
Goals conceded per match1.11.2
xG per match0.140.31
Opponents’ xG0.060.06
Shots9.013.1
On target3.15.6
Corners3.43.4
Cards2.13.3
Possession, %6049

Averages per match: Alacranes de Durango — the last 9, Leones Negros — the last 9 matches in all competitions.

Last starting lineups

How the teams started their last match; the official lineups come about an hour before kick-off.

Alacranes de Durango

  1. GKJared Muñoz
  2. DFSergio Flores (C)
  3. DFEduardo González
  4. DFJosé Múnoz
  5. DFDavid Oteo
  6. MFLuis Gutiérrez
  7. MFÉric Cantú
  8. MFJosé Reyes
  9. FWAlonso Escoboza
  10. FWJair González
  11. FWJuan Angulo
Bench (10)
  1. MFAndy Garcia
  2. MFJan Ontiveros
  3. FWJared Torres
  4. FWLuis Loroña
  5. MFTomás Montano
  6. GKAlejandro Peláez
  7. DFMiguel Lozano
  8. MFCesar Vega
  9. MFRubén Domínguez
  10. MFLuis Morales

Leones Negros

  1. GKOziel Cantú
  2. DFUlises Torres
  3. DFLeonardo Sepúlveda
  4. DFMiguel Nuño
  5. DFJuan Agüayo
  6. MFSergio Hernández
  7. MFJahaziel Marchand (C)
  8. MFJesús Brígido
  9. MFAlejandro Carreón
  10. FWÓscar Gil
  11. FWLuis Razo
Bench (10)
  1. MFJuan Cázares
  2. MFAlejandro Bravo
  3. DFOlaf González
  4. GKSebastián Venegas
  5. FWJoel Pérez
  6. FWKevin Loera
  7. MFMauro Valenzuela
  8. MFDaniel Torres
  9. DFMiguel Alvarado
  10. FWFarid Morales

Form

Alacranes de Durango

  • 01.11Atlético Morelia3:1
  • 25.10away · Venados FC2:3
  • 18.10Tapatío5:0
  • 11.10away · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero0:0
  • 04.10Mineros de Zacatecas4:2

Leones Negros

  • 01.11Tepatitlán FC3:1
  • 25.10away · Mineros de Zacatecas2:0
  • 18.10Alebrijes Oaxaca1:2
  • 11.10away · Venados FC1:1
  • 04.10Dorados6:3

Head to head

  • 23.08.2026Alacranes de Durango — Leones Negros1:2

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1Atlético La Paz1593336–18+1830
2Leones Negros1593334–20+1430
3Atlético Morelia1582526–19+726
6Venados FC1574431–25+625
7Alacranes de Durango1573521–15+624
8Tlaxcala FC1564529–27+222

Season 2026/27

Full table

Liga de Expansion MX on the same day

  • Cancún FCPiratas
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →