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Colombian Primera A (Liga BetPlay) · Monday, 26 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau

Alianza FC — Internacional de Bogotá

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Model prediction and result

1:0Came true
Alianza FC45%
Draw28%
Internacional de Bogotá27%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Alianza FC to win (45%), came true.

Alianza FC are slightly stronger: 45% against 27%, draw 28%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).

Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 55%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Alianza FC are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
  • Alianza FC are 64 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Internacional de Bogotá: unbeaten in 4.
  • Last 5 meetings: Alianza FC 2 wins, Internacional de Bogotá 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Alianza FC — Internacional de Bogotá What is xG?1.5–1.1
Alianza FC not to lose73%
Internacional de Bogotá not to lose55%
No draw72%
Both teams to score: yes55%
Both teams to score: no45%
Total over 2.549%
Total under 2.551%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Alianza FC
  • Alianza FC goals
  • Internacional de Bogotá goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 31′Misael Martínez · Alianza FC1:0
  2. 46′Jhair Castillo · Alianza FC
  3. 49′Dewar Victoria · Internacional de Bogotá
  4. 70′Miguel Pernía · Internacional de Bogotá
  5. 87′Yeiner Londoño · Alianza FC
  6. 91′Wiston Fernández · Alianza FC
Substitutions (10)
  1. 51′Miguel Amaya ↔ Cristian Dájome · Internacional de Bogotá
  2. 59′Ever Meza ↔ Jhair Castillo · Alianza FC
  3. 60′Yeiner Londoño ↔ Felipe Pardo · Alianza FC
  4. 62′Mateo Santamaria ↔ Ronaldo Julio · Internacional de Bogotá
  5. 62′Johan Caballero ↔ Facundo Boné · Internacional de Bogotá
  6. 72′Diego Duarte ↔ Fabricio Sanguinetti · Internacional de Bogotá
  7. 72′Sebastián Giraldo ↔ Rubén Manjarrés · Internacional de Bogotá
  8. 76′Josy Pérez ↔ Jesús Muñoz · Alianza FC
  9. 76′Cristian Vergara ↔ Misael Martínez · Alianza FC
  10. 86′Sebastián Quiñones ↔ Juan Viveros · Alianza FC

Match statistics

Alianza FCInternacional de Bogotá
  • 1.42Expected goals (xG)0.26
  • 54Possession, %46
  • 12Shots4
  • 5On target1
  • 2Big chances0
  • 7Corners2
  • 15Fouls15
  • 1Offsides2
  • 3Yellow cards1
  • 0Red cards1

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Alianza FC

  1. GKEduar Esteban7.3
  2. DFKevin Moreno7.2
  3. DFJuan Viveros86′7.7
  4. DFPedro Franco (C)7.6
  5. DFYilson Rosales7.1
  6. MFJhair Castillo59′6.7
  7. MFJhildrey Lasso8.3
  8. MFWiston Fernández7.7
  9. FWJesús Muñoz76′7.2
  10. FWFelipe Pardo60′6.3
  11. FWMisael Martínez76′7.8
Came on (5)
  1. MFYeiner Londoño30′6.0
  2. MFEver Meza31′6.2
  3. FWCristian Vergara14′6.2
  4. DFSebastián Quiñones4′
  5. MFJosy Pérez14′6.2

Internacional de Bogotá

  1. GKWuilker Fariñez7.0
  2. DFCarlos Vivas6.9
  3. DFAgustín Irazoque6.8
  4. DFJoan Castro (C)6.6
  5. MFDewar Victoria49′5.2
  6. MFMiguel Pernía6.7
  7. MFRonaldo Julio62′6.1
  8. MFRubén Manjarrés72′6.7
  9. FWCristian Dájome51′5.8
  10. FWFacundo Boné62′5.9
  11. FWFabricio Sanguinetti72′5.9
Came on (5)
  1. FWDiego Duarte18′5.8
  2. FWJohan Caballero28′6.5
  3. DFMiguel Amaya39′6.7
  4. MFMateo Santamaria28′6.0
  5. FWSebastián Giraldo18′5.8

Form

Alianza FC

  • 20.10away · Deportivo Pasto1:0
  • 10.10Águilas Doradas2:2
  • 03.10away · Deportivo Cali1:3
  • 28.09away · CD Jaguares2:1
  • 20.09Santa Fe1:4

Internacional de Bogotá

  • 21.10Fortaleza FC2:1
  • 11.10away · Junior2:2
  • 05.10Once Caldas1:1
  • 27.09away · Deportivo Pereira0:0
  • 21.09away · Bucaramanga0:2

Head to head

  • 13.04.2026Internacional de Bogotá — Alianza FC2:1
  • 25.10.2025Alianza FC — Internacional de Bogotá2:0
  • 03.05.2025Internacional de Bogotá — Alianza FC0:2
  • 02.11.2024Internacional de Bogotá — Alianza FC3:2
  • 15.04.2024Alianza FC — Internacional de Bogotá0:3

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026 (Clausura)
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
11Cúcuta1663718–24-621
12Internacional de Bogotá1748521–23-220
13Llaneros FC1762919–23-420
14Alianza FC1753917–29-1218
15Deportivo Pereira1738613–22-917

Season 2026 (Clausura)

Full table

Next matches

  • Once CaldasAlianza FC29 October · Colombian Primera A
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.5
  • Internacional de BogotáIndependiente Medellín29 October · Colombian Primera A
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 3:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.8

Colombian Primera A on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →