Colombian Primera A (Liga BetPlay) · Monday, 26 October, MSK
Tolima — Deportivo Pasto
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 26 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Tolima are clear favourites: 61% against 15% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 39%, both teams to score — 41%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Tolima are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Tolima — No. 8, 20 pts; Deportivo Pasto — No. 19, 9 pts. A gap of 11 pts.
- Tolima: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Tolima 3 wins, Deportivo Pasto 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Tolima — Deportivo Pasto What is xG? | 1.6–0.7 | |
| Tolima not to lose | 85% | |
| Deportivo Pasto not to lose | 39% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 41% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 59% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 39% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 61% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Tolima
- Tolima goals
- Deportivo Pasto goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 12.10away · CD Jaguares2:3
- 09.10away · Atlético Nacional0:0
- 04.10Chicó FC0:0
- 28.09away · Fortaleza FC2:2
- 21.09América de Cali1:1
- 04.10Fortaleza FC0:0
- 26.09away · Chicó FC0:3
- 20.09Once Caldas1:0
- 15.09away · América de Cali1:0
- 06.09away · Cúcuta2:2
Head to head
- 14.05.2026Deportivo Pasto — Tolima0:2
- 10.05.2026Tolima — Deportivo Pasto1:0
- 11.04.2026Deportivo Pasto — Tolima1:0
- 12.07.2025Deportivo Pasto — Tolima3:2
- 28.01.2025Tolima — Deportivo Pasto2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7, Semi-final groups | Millonarios | 14 | 5 | +7 | 22 |
| 8, Semi-final groups | Tolima | 14 | 5 | +1 | 20 |
| 9 | Cúcuta | 13 | 5 | -3 | 18 |
| 18 | CD Jaguares | 12 | 2 | -8 | 10 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pasto | 12 | 2 | -9 | 9 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 12 | 1 | -10 | 9 |
Colombian Primera A on the same day
- Atlético NacionalIndependiente Medellínpreliminary5824181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →