Colombian Primera A (Liga BetPlay) · Monday, 26 October, MSK
Atlético Nacional — Independiente Medellín
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 26 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Atlético Nacional are clear favourites: 58% against 18% for the opponent, draw 24%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Atlético Nacional are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Atlético Nacional — No. 4, 23 pts; Independiente Medellín — No. 5, 23 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Atlético Nacional 3 wins, Independiente Medellín 0, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Atlético Nacional — Independiente Medellín What is xG? | 1.8–1.0 | |
| Atlético Nacional not to lose | 82% | |
| Independiente Medellín not to lose | 42% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Atlético Nacional
- Atlético Nacional goals
- Independiente Medellín goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10Tolima0:0
- 01.10Junior FC3:1
- 25.09Millonarios1:1
- 21.09away · Llaneros FC0:2
- 17.09away · Internacional de Bogotá3:2
- 12.10away · América de Cali2:1
- 06.10Santa Fe0:1
- 30.09Millonarios2:2
- 27.09away · Junior FC0:2
- 23.09CD Jaguares2:1
Head to head
- 12.04.2026Independiente Medellín — Atlético Nacional2:3
- 05.12.2025Atlético Nacional — Independiente Medellín2:1
- 24.11.2025Independiente Medellín — Atlético Nacional0:0
- 27.10.2025Atlético Nacional — Independiente Medellín5:2
- 08.09.2025Independiente Medellín — Atlético Nacional3:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Semi-final groups | Bucaramanga | 12 | 6 | +10 | 24 |
| 4, Semi-final groups | Atlético Nacional | 11 | 7 | +11 | 23 |
| 5, Semi-final groups | Independiente Medellín | 13 | 7 | +4 | 23 |
| 6, Semi-final groups | Santa Fe | 12 | 6 | +7 | 22 |
Colombian Primera A on the same day
- TolimaDeportivo Pastopreliminary6125151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →