Austrian Bundesliga, round 13 · Sunday, 22 November, 16:30 (UTC+3)

Altach — Sturm Graz

Model prediction for 22 November

Altach30%

Draw31%

Sturm Graz39%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Sturm Graz are slightly stronger: 39% against 30%, draw 31%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 57%.

Why

By the strength ratings Sturm Graz are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Sturm Graz are 116 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Altach — No. 8, 10 pts; Sturm Graz — No. 4, 19 pts. A gap of 9 pts.
Sturm Graz: unbeaten in 4.
Last 5 meetings: Altach 0 wins, Sturm Graz 4, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Altach — Sturm Graz What is xG?		1.2–1.4
Altach not to lose		61%
Sturm Graz not to lose		70%
No draw		69%
Both teams to score: yes		57%
Both teams to score: no		43%
Total over 2.5		51%
Total under 2.5		49%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Altach
Altach goals
Sturm Graz goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Altach	Sturm Graz
Goals scored per match	1.1	1.5
Goals conceded per match	1.6	1.4
xG per match	1.19	1.72
Opponents’ xG	1.22	1.60
Shots	13.5	15.5
On target	4.1	4.9
Corners	4.6	5.3
Cards	1.4	2.5
Possession, %	50	44

Averages per match: Altach — the last 10, Sturm Graz — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Altach

31.10Ried1:1
23.10Austria Wien2:1
18.10away · Salzburg0:3
11.10Wolfsberger AC3:0
19.09away · Austria Lustenau0:2

Sturm Graz

01.11away · Wolfsberger AC1:1
25.10Ried2:2
22.10Marseille1:0
18.10Grazer AK6:1
15.10away · AFC Bournemouth0:3

Head to head

15.08.2026Sturm Graz — Altach1:0
08.03.2026Sturm Graz — Altach2:0
05.10.2025Altach — Sturm Graz0:2
30.11.2024Altach — Sturm Graz1:1
24.08.2024Sturm Graz — Altach2:1

Full record: 7 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
3, Championship round	LASK	11	7	1	3	26–13	+13	22
4, Championship round	Sturm Graz	11	5	4	2	19–13	+6	19
5, Championship round	Hartberg	11	5	2	4	20–19	+1	17
7, Relegation round	WSG Tirol	11	3	3	5	14–17	-3	12
8, Relegation round	Altach	11	3	1	7	11–17	-6	10
9, Relegation round	Grazer AK	11	2	4	5	8–27	-19	10

Season 2026/27

Full table

Austrian Bundesliga on the same day

16:30
Wolfsberger ACRiedpreliminary
323038
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0
19:00
Austria WienSalzburgpreliminary
192754
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →