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Austrian Bundesliga, round 13 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)

Austria Wien — Salzburg

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Model prediction for 22 November

Austria Wien19%
Draw27%
Salzburg54%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Salzburg are clear favourites: 54% against 19% for the opponent, draw 27%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 59%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Salzburg are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
  • Salzburg are 167 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • League table: Austria Wien — No. 11, 7 pts; Salzburg — No. 2, 27 pts. A gap of 20 pts.
  • Austria Wien: 4 defeats in a row; Salzburg: unbeaten in 4.
  • Last 5 meetings: Austria Wien 1 win, Salzburg 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Austria Wien — Salzburg What is xG?1.1–1.8
Austria Wien not to lose46%
Salzburg not to lose81%
No draw73%
Both teams to score: yes59%
Both teams to score: no41%
Total over 2.557%
Total under 2.543%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Austria Wien
  • Austria Wien goals
  • Salzburg goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatAustria WienSalzburg
Goals scored per match1.02.3
Goals conceded per match1.91.0
xG per match1.071.99
Opponents’ xG1.821.28
Shots11.516.9
On target3.16.4
Corners5.25.0
Cards1.61.7
Possession, %5157

Averages per match: Austria Wien — the last 10, Salzburg — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Austria Wien

  • 01.11Rapid Wien0:2
  • 23.10away · Altach1:2
  • 17.10away · Ried2:3
  • 10.10Sturm Graz0:2
  • 19.09away · Grazer AK2:2

Salzburg

  • 01.11Austria Lustenau5:1
  • 25.10away · LASK3:1
  • 22.10away · NK Celje2:2
  • 18.10Altach3:0
  • 15.10Milan0:4

Head to head

  • 30.08.2026Salzburg — Austria Wien4:1
  • 22.04.2026Salzburg — Austria Wien3:1
  • 19.04.2026Austria Wien — Salzburg1:3
  • 06.02.2026Salzburg — Austria Wien0:2
  • 26.10.2025Austria Wien — Salzburg0:3

Full record: 11 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, Championship roundRapid Wien11100133–9+2430
2, Championship roundSalzburg1183029–6+2327
3, Championship roundLASK1171326–13+1322
10, Relegation roundAustria Lustenau1122713–29-168
11, Relegation roundAustria Wien1121810–22-127
12, Relegation roundWolfsberger AC111378–20-126

Season 2026/27

Full table

Austrian Bundesliga on the same day

  • AltachSturm Grazpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.6
  • Wolfsberger ACRiedpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →