Portuguese Primeira Liga, round 11 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Alverca — Casa Pia AC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Alverca are clear favourites: 54% against 19% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Alverca are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- Alverca are 185 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Alverca — No. 10, 11 pts; Casa Pia AC — No. 17, 7 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
- Alverca: 3 defeats in a row.
- Last 2 meetings: Alverca 2 wins, Casa Pia AC 0.
- Days of rest before the match: Alverca 5, Casa Pia AC 8.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Alverca — Casa Pia AC What is xG? | 1.7–1.0 | |
| Alverca not to lose | 81% | |
| Casa Pia AC not to lose | 46% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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- Handicap Alverca
- Alverca goals
- Casa Pia AC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Alverca | Casa Pia AC |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| xG per match | 1.41 | 0.83 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.69 | 1.76 |
| Shots | 11.5 | 9.9 |
| On target | 3.8 | 2.7 |
| Corners | 4.6 | 4.0 |
| Cards | 2.6 | 2.2 |
| Possession, % | 41 | 43 |
Form
- 02.11away · Benfica0:1
- 24.10Arouca0:1
- 18.10away · Tondela0:2
- 12.10away · Famalicão4:1
- 19.09Rio Ave1:0
- 30.10Sporting CP0:2
- 24.10away · Estrela da Amadora2:0
- 18.10away · Alpendorada1:0
- 10.10Santa Clara0:1
- 20.09away · Estoril2:1
Head to head
- 12.04.2026Alverca — Casa Pia AC3:1
- 29.11.2025Casa Pia AC — Alverca0:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Moreirense | 10 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 10 | Alverca | 10 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 11 | Famalicão | 10 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Rio Ave | 10 | 2 | -14 | 7 |
| 17, Relegation | Casa Pia AC | 10 | 2 | -14 | 7 |
| 18, Relegation | Estoril | 10 | 0 | -14 | 2 |
Primeira Liga on the same day
- 2928432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.7
- 851141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →