Portuguese Primeira Liga, round 11 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Sporting CP — Moreirense
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Sporting CP are clear favourites: 85% against 4% for the opponent, draw 11%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 42%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Sporting CP are about 1.9 goals per match stronger.
- Sporting CP are 361 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Sporting CP — No. 3, 21 pts; Moreirense — No. 9, 14 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Sporting CP 4 wins, Moreirense 1.
- Days of rest before the match: Sporting CP 4, Moreirense 7.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sporting CP — Moreirense What is xG? | 2.6–0.6 | |
| Sporting CP not to lose | 96% | |
| Moreirense not to lose | 15% | |
| No draw | 89% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 42% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 58% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Sporting CP
- Sporting CP goals
- Moreirense goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Sporting CP | Moreirense |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| xG per match | 2.02 | 0.80 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.12 | 1.73 |
| Shots | 15.1 | 8.7 |
| On target | 5.1 | 3.0 |
| Corners | 4.9 | 2.5 |
| Cards | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| Possession, % | 56 | 38 |
Form
- 03.11away · Shakhtar Donetsk1:0
- 30.10away · Casa Pia AC2:0
- 25.10Académico Viseu1:2
- 21.10LASK2:3
- 13.10away · Lens2:0
- 31.10Estrela da Amadora2:1
- 25.10away · Estoril3:1
- 17.10away · AVS Futebol SAD0:1
- 09.10Gil Vicente0:1
- 20.09away · Vitória de Guimarães1:1
Head to head
- 21.02.2026Moreirense — Sporting CP0:3
- 22.09.2025Sporting CP — Moreirense3:0
- 18.04.2025Sporting CP — Moreirense3:1
- 05.12.2024Moreirense — Sporting CP2:1
- 19.02.2024Moreirense — Sporting CP0:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Champions League | Benfica | 10 | 8 | +19 | 25 |
| 3, Champions League qualifying | Sporting CP | 10 | 6 | +12 | 21 |
| 4, Europa League or Conference League | Santa Clara | 10 | 6 | +9 | 21 |
| 8 | Braga | 10 | 4 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | Moreirense | 10 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 10 | Alverca | 10 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
Primeira Liga on the same day
- 2928432The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.7
- 5427191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 85% will not happen in roughly 15 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →