Serie B, round 12 · Sunday, 22 November, 19:15 (UTC+3)

Arezzo — Padova

Model prediction for 22 November

Arezzo37%

Draw29%

Padova33%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Evenly matched: Arezzo 37%, Padova 33%, draw 29%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 54%.

Why

By the strength ratings Arezzo are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
In recent matches the betting market rated Padova higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.

Facts

League table: Arezzo — No. 14, 11 pts; Padova — No. 10, 14 pts. A gap of 3 pts.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Arezzo — Padova What is xG?		1.3–1.2
Arezzo not to lose		67%
Padova not to lose		63%
No draw		71%
Both teams to score: yes		54%
Both teams to score: no		46%
Total over 2.5		47%
Total under 2.5		53%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Arezzo
Arezzo goals
Padova goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Arezzo	Padova
Goals scored per match	0.9	1.0
Goals conceded per match	1.9	1.1
xG per match	0.98	0.98
Opponents’ xG	1.71	1.89
Shots	10.9	10.3
On target	2.8	2.9
Corners	3.8	4.2
Cards	1.6	2.3
Possession, %	43	42

Averages per match: Arezzo — the last 10, Padova — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Arezzo

01.11Ascoli0:0
28.10away · Carrarese1:2
24.10Benevento0:3
18.10away · Sampdoria2:1
10.10Cremonese0:0

Padova

31.10away · Catanzaro1:1
27.10Südtirol2:0
24.10away · Avellino1:0
17.10Virtus Entella1:2
11.10Carrarese0:2

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
9	Südtirol	10	3	5	2	11–10	+1	14
10	Padova	10	4	2	4	10–11	-1	14
11	Juve Stabia	10	3	4	3	11–11	0	13
13	Cesena	10	2	6	2	11–14	-3	12
14	Arezzo	10	3	2	5	9–19	-10	11
15	Virtus Entella	10	2	4	4	11–12	-1	10

Season 2026/27

Full table

Serie B on the same day

17:00
AvellinoMantovapreliminary
413028
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →