Serie B, round 12 · Sunday, 22 November, 17:00 (UTC+3)

Avellino — Mantova

Model prediction for 22 November

Avellino41%

Draw30%

Mantova28%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Avellino are slightly stronger: 41% against 28%, draw 30%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 55%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Avellino are 54 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Avellino — No. 6, 15 pts; Mantova — No. 4, 18 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
Last 2 meetings: Avellino 1 win, Mantova 0, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Avellino — Mantova What is xG?		1.4–1.1
Avellino not to lose		72%
Mantova not to lose		59%
No draw		70%
Both teams to score: yes		55%
Both teams to score: no		45%
Total over 2.5		48%
Total under 2.5		52%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Avellino
Avellino goals
Mantova goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Avellino	Mantova
Goals scored per match	1.5	1.5
Goals conceded per match	1.0	1.5
xG per match	1.36	1.37
Opponents’ xG	1.11	1.62
Shots	14.6	13.2
On target	4.4	5.6
Corners	4.1	4.1
Cards	2.0	2.2
Possession, %	50	52

Averages per match: Avellino — the last 10, Mantova — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Avellino

01.11Pisa2:0
27.10away · Virtus Entella1:1
24.10Padova0:1
18.10away · Cesena1:1
09.10Sampdoria4:1

Mantova

31.10away · Modena1:1
27.10Cremonese0:2
24.10away · Virtus Entella1:0
17.10Palermo0:2
11.10away · Catanzaro3:1

Head to head

18.04.2026Mantova — Avellino0:2
04.10.2025Avellino — Mantova0:0

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
3, Promotion play-offs	Ascoli	10	5	4	1	16–6	+10	19
4, Promotion play-offs	Mantova	10	5	3	2	15–11	+4	18
5, Promotion play-offs	Hellas Verona	10	4	3	3	19–13	+6	15
6, Promotion play-offs	Avellino	10	4	3	3	15–10	+5	15
7, Promotion play-offs	Benevento	10	4	3	3	14–10	+4	15

Season 2026/27

Full table

Serie B on the same day

19:15
ArezzoPadovapreliminary
372933
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →