Ecuadorian LigaPro Serie A, playoff · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Aucas — Independiente del Valle
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 8 November
In short
Independiente del Valle are slightly stronger: 45% against 27%, draw 28%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Independiente del Valle are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
- Independiente del Valle are 159 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Aucas 0 wins, Independiente del Valle 4, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Aucas — Independiente del Valle What is xG? | 1.1–1.5 | |
| Aucas not to lose | 55% | |
| Independiente del Valle not to lose | 73% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 45% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 55% |
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Aucas | Independiente del Valle |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| xG per match | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Shots | 11.7 | 15.0 |
| On target | 3.1 | 5.1 |
| Corners | 4.2 | 5.2 |
| Cards | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Possession, % | 49 | 51 |
Form
- 01.11away · Universidad Católica (ECU)2:1
- 26.10Barcelona SC0:4
- 18.10LDU de Quito1:1
- 10.10away · Independiente del Valle1:2
- 19.09CSD Macará1:2
- 01.11LDU de Quito2:0
- 24.10Universidad Católica (ECU)0:0
- 17.10away · CSD Macará0:1
- 10.10Aucas2:1
- 18.09away · Flamengo1:1
Head to head
- 10.10.2026Independiente del Valle — Aucas2:1
- 17.07.2026Aucas — Independiente del Valle0:3
- 14.03.2026Independiente del Valle — Aucas2:2
- 19.07.2025Independiente del Valle — Aucas2:1
- 29.03.2025Aucas — Independiente del Valle1:2
LigaPro Serie A on the same day
- 5227211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- 4329271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →