Ecuadorian LigaPro Serie A, playoff · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Leones del Norte — Guayaquil City
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 8 November
In short
Leones del Norte are clear favourites: 52% against 21% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Leones del Norte are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Leones del Norte are 109 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Last 3 meetings: Leones del Norte 0 wins, Guayaquil City 0, 3 draws.
- Days of rest before the match: Leones del Norte 8, Guayaquil City 6.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Leones del Norte — Guayaquil City What is xG? | 1.6–1.0 | |
| Leones del Norte not to lose | 79% | |
| Guayaquil City not to lose | 48% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Leones del Norte
- Leones del Norte goals
- Guayaquil City goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Leones del Norte | Guayaquil City |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| xG per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots | 16.2 | 10.9 |
| On target | 4.6 | 3.8 |
| Corners | 4.8 | 3.5 |
| Cards | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| Possession, % | 49 | 57 |
Form
- 31.10away · Emelec2:0
- 25.10Libertad (ECU)4:1
- 18.10Emelec1:3
- 09.10away · Libertad (ECU)0:3
- 20.09away · Guayaquil City1:1
- 02.11Libertad (ECU)0:0
- 25.10away · Emelec1:0
- 17.10away · Libertad (ECU)0:4
- 11.10Emelec3:2
- 20.09Leones del Norte1:1
Head to head
- 20.09.2026Guayaquil City — Leones del Norte1:1
- 24.07.2026Leones del Norte — Guayaquil City1:1
- 24.03.2026Guayaquil City — Leones del Norte0:0
LigaPro Serie A on the same day
- 4329271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- 2728452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →