Ecuadorian LigaPro Serie A, playoff · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
CSD Macará — Universidad Católica (ECU)
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In short
CSD Macará are slightly stronger: 43% against 27%, draw 29%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).
Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- CSD Macará are 195 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- CSD Macará: 5 wins in a row; Universidad Católica (ECU): winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: CSD Macará 1 win, Universidad Católica (ECU) 3, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: CSD Macará — Universidad Católica (ECU) What is xG? | 1.4–1.1 | |
| CSD Macará not to lose | 73% | |
| Universidad Católica (ECU) not to lose | 57% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 45% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 55% |
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- Universidad Católica (ECU) goals
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | CSD Macará | Universidad Católica (ECU) |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| xG per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots | 15.4 | 14.7 |
| On target | 6.2 | 4.8 |
| Corners | 4.3 | 3.9 |
| Cards | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Possession, % | 44 | 58 |
Form
- 01.11Barcelona SC3:0
- 25.10away · LDU de Quito2:1
- 17.10Independiente del Valle1:0
- 11.10away · Universidad Católica (ECU)1:0
- 19.09away · Aucas2:1
- 01.11Aucas1:2
- 24.10away · Independiente del Valle0:0
- 19.10away · Barcelona SC1:1
- 11.10CSD Macará0:1
- 21.09away · LDU de Quito1:2
Head to head
- 11.10.2026Universidad Católica (ECU) — CSD Macará0:1
- 18.08.2026CSD Macará — Universidad Católica (ECU)1:1
- 24.04.2026Universidad Católica (ECU) — CSD Macará4:0
- 27.07.2025CSD Macará — Universidad Católica (ECU)1:4
- 06.04.2025Universidad Católica (ECU) — CSD Macará1:0
LigaPro Serie A on the same day
- 5227211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
- 2728452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →