A-League Men (Australia), round 5 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Auckland FC — Melbourne Victory
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Auckland FC are slightly stronger: 43% against 27%, draw 30%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Auckland FC are 123 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Auckland FC — No. 6, 4 pts; Melbourne Victory — No. 9, 2 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
- Melbourne Victory: winless in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Auckland FC 2 wins, Melbourne Victory 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Auckland FC — Melbourne Victory What is xG? | 1.6–1.3 | |
| Auckland FC not to lose | 73% | |
| Melbourne Victory not to lose | 57% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Auckland FC
- Auckland FC goals
- Melbourne Victory goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Auckland FC | Melbourne Victory |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| xG per match | 1.22 | 1.45 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.52 | 1.35 |
| Shots | 13.0 | 15.0 |
| On target | 3.5 | 5.2 |
| Corners | 5.7 | 6.3 |
| Cards | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Possession, % | 45 | 49 |
Form
- 30.10away · Brisbane Roar FC1:1
- 24.10away · Western Sydney Wanderers FC2:5
- 17.10Melbourne City FC3:1
- 23.05Sydney FC1:0
- 15.05away · Adelaide United3:0
- 01.11Central Coast Mariners1:1
- 24.10Melbourne City FC1:1
- 18.10away · Wellington Phoenix1:2
- 02.05Sydney FC0:1
- 25.04away · Western Sydney Wanderers FC2:0
Head to head
- 11.04.2026Auckland FC — Melbourne Victory2:2
- 18.10.2025Melbourne Victory — Auckland FC0:0
- 24.05.2025Auckland FC — Melbourne Victory0:2
- 17.05.2025Melbourne Victory — Auckland FC0:1
- 19.04.2025Melbourne Victory — Auckland FC0:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Finals series | Sydney FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6, Finals series | Auckland FC | 3 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 7 | Melbourne City FC | 3 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Perth Glory | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 | Melbourne Victory | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 |
| 10 | Central Coast Mariners | 3 | 0 | -2 | 2 |
A-League on the same day
- Central Coast MarinersPerth Glorypreliminary3930321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- Brisbane Roar FCSydney FCpreliminary363134XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →