A-League Men (Australia), round 5 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Brisbane Roar FC — Sydney FC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: Brisbane Roar FC 36%, Sydney FC 34%, draw 31%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Brisbane Roar FC — No. 4, 4 pts; Sydney FC — No. 5, 4 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Brisbane Roar FC 1 win, Sydney FC 2, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Brisbane Roar FC — Sydney FC What is xG? | 1.3–1.3 | |
| Brisbane Roar FC not to lose | 66% | |
| Sydney FC not to lose | 64% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Brisbane Roar FC
- Brisbane Roar FC goals
- Sydney FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Brisbane Roar FC | Sydney FC |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| xG per match | 1.38 | 1.46 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.32 | 1.05 |
| Shots | 14.7 | 12.7 |
| On target | 5.0 | 4.1 |
| Corners | 5.9 | 4.3 |
| Cards | 2.4 | 2.2 |
| Possession, % | 53 | 53 |
Form
- 30.10Auckland FC1:1
- 23.10Perth Glory2:1
- 25.04away · Perth Glory1:2
- 18.04Melbourne City FC2:3
- 10.04away · Central Coast Mariners2:2
- 31.10away · Melbourne City FC1:2
- 25.10Adelaide United2:1
- 16.10Western Sydney Wanderers FC0:0
- 23.05away · Auckland FC0:1
- 16.05away · Newcastle Jets1:1
Head to head
- 02.04.2026Brisbane Roar FC — Sydney FC0:0
- 21.02.2026Sydney FC — Brisbane Roar FC1:0
- 18.01.2025Sydney FC — Brisbane Roar FC3:4
- 01.11.2024Brisbane Roar FC — Sydney FC2:3
- 10.03.2024Sydney FC — Brisbane Roar FC1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Finals series | Macarthur FC | 3 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 4, Finals series | Brisbane Roar FC | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 5, Finals series | Sydney FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6, Finals series | Auckland FC | 3 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
A-League on the same day
- Auckland FCMelbourne Victorypreliminary4330271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Central Coast MarinersPerth Glorypreliminary3930321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 36% will not happen in roughly 64 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →