A-League Men (Australia), round 5 · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Central Coast Mariners — Perth Glory
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Central Coast Mariners are slightly stronger: 39% against 32%, draw 30%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 63%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Central Coast Mariners are 86 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Central Coast Mariners — No. 10, 2 pts; Perth Glory — No. 8, 3 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Central Coast Mariners: winless in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Central Coast Mariners 2 wins, Perth Glory 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Central Coast Mariners — Perth Glory What is xG? | 1.5–1.4 | |
| Central Coast Mariners not to lose | 68% | |
| Perth Glory not to lose | 61% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 63% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 37% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Central Coast Mariners
- Central Coast Mariners goals
- Perth Glory goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Central Coast Mariners | Perth Glory |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| xG per match | 1.42 | 1.39 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.96 | 1.43 |
| Shots | 11.0 | 11.1 |
| On target | 4.3 | 4.5 |
| Corners | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Cards | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Possession, % | 47 | 42 |
Form
- 01.11away · Melbourne Victory1:1
- 25.10away · Wellington Phoenix0:2
- 17.10Newcastle Jets2:2
- 25.04away · Newcastle Jets0:4
- 19.04away · Auckland FC1:0
- 01.11Adelaide United4:0
- 23.10away · Brisbane Roar FC1:2
- 17.10away · Macarthur FC1:2
- 25.04Brisbane Roar FC2:1
- 18.04away · Sydney FC0:0
Head to head
- 04.04.2026Central Coast Mariners — Perth Glory2:2
- 10.01.2026Perth Glory — Central Coast Mariners3:0
- 07.11.2025Perth Glory — Central Coast Mariners0:1
- 30.03.2025Central Coast Mariners — Perth Glory3:1
- 07.02.2025Perth Glory — Central Coast Mariners1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Melbourne City FC | 3 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Perth Glory | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 9 | Melbourne Victory | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 |
| 10 | Central Coast Mariners | 3 | 0 | -2 | 2 |
| 11 | Newcastle Jets | 3 | 0 | -3 | 2 |
A-League on the same day
- Auckland FCMelbourne Victorypreliminary4330271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- Brisbane Roar FCSydney FCpreliminary363134XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →